AAPL
Apple Inc.$250.12
Sell
Target $221.81
Report: Feb 19, 2026Technology • Consumer Electronics • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$250.12-11.3%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$221.81
(11% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$288.62
52 Week Low$169.21
Avg. 3 Month Volume46.94M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin47.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin35.1%
LTM EBIT Margin32.4%
LTM Operating Margin32.4%
LTM ROA33.6%
LTM ROE159.9%
LTM ROIC54.8%
LTM ROCE71.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$3,725.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$3,771.1B
Shares Outstanding14.75B
Total Debt (MM)$90.51B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$45.32B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$45.19B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth10.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR4.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR6.1%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR10.2%
Valuation
Street Target Price$316.67
LTM EV/Revenue8.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit18.3x
LTM EV/EBIT26.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA24.7x
LTM P/E31.6x
LTM EV/FCF30.6x
LTM P/FCF30.2x
LTM P/TB9.8x
LTM P/B42.2x
Dividend Yield0.4%
Payout Ratio13.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $250.12 versus fair value $221.81 (-11.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on iPhone 17 Upgrade Cycle Data Management must deliver a Q3 FY2026 iPhone upgrade rate above 30% to validate the 'Apple Intelligence' supercycle narrative. Bear case centers on Regulatory Moat Erosion The DOJ and EU antitrust suits could force Apple to allow third-party app stores and decouple iMessage, which would directly impair the 75.4% Services gross margin and reduce ecosystem switching costs. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The 'Apple Intelligence' rollout triggers a massive multi-year hardware supercycle as the 2-billion-device installed base upgrades to run on-device AI; Services revenue continues to grow at mid-teens rates, lifting consolidated gross margins toward 50% through favorable mix shift.
Bear Case
Regulatory mandates in the U.S. and EU force the decoupling of the App Store and iMessage, eroding the high-margin Services moat; negative incremental ROIC (-140.1%) persists as AI CapEx fails to generate immediate cash flow, leading to a multiple de-rating.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
iPhone 17 Upgrade Cycle Data Management must deliver a Q3 FY2026 iPhone upgrade rate above 30% to validate the 'Apple Intelligence' supercyc...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Monetization of AI App Store The launch of the first monetized Apple Intelligence features or a dedicated 'AI App Store' would provide a tan...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Apple is at a critical juncture as it begins the multi-year rollout of Apple Intelligence while simultaneously defending its core business m...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Regulatory Moat Erosion The DOJ and EU antitrust suits could force Apple to allow third-party app stores and decouple iMessage, which would...
Concern: Medium
Negative Incremental ROIC Continued massive investment in AI infrastructure ($12.7 billion CapEx) may fail to generate a return above the 10...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is strong but currently clouded by a lack of insider alignment. While the board is composed of high-caliber individu...
Recent Activity
2024-06-11Analyst Target
+7.26%Firm: D.A. Davidson Analyst: Gil Luria Price Target: $230.00 Price When Posted: $193.12 Implied Upside: +19.1%
2024-05-03SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.98%Apple reports Q2 2024 financial results with revenue decline but record Services revenue and EPS.
2022-10-28SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.56%Apple reports Q4 2022 financial results with record revenue and EPS growth.
2022-05-11Analyst Target
-5.18%Firm: HSBC Analyst: Nicolas Cote Colisson Price Target: $160.00 Price When Posted: $152.17 Implied Upside: +5.1%
2022-01-28SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.98%Apple reports Q1 2022 financial results with record revenue and EPS growth.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$137
Bear
$228
Bull
$250