ABNB
Airbnb, Inc.$121.35
Unclear
Target $115.56
Report: Feb 19, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Travel Services • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$121.35-4.8%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$88.89
(27% below current)
Fair Value
$115.56
(5% below current)
Stop Loss
$99.88
(18% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$143.88
52 Week Low$99.88
Avg. 3 Month Volume4.52M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin83.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin25.6%
LTM EBIT Margin25.6%
LTM Operating Margin20.8%
LTM ROA10.3%
LTM ROE30.9%
LTM ROIC126.8%
LTM ROCE34.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$76.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$72.3B
Shares Outstanding604.00M
Total Debt (MM)$2.00B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$6.56B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-4.56B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-1.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth10.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR13.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR14.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR11.6%
Valuation
Street Target Price$141.60
LTM EV/Revenue5.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit7.1x
LTM EV/EBIT23.0x
LTM EV/EBITDA23.0x
LTM P/E30.6x
LTM EV/FCF15.6x
LTM P/FCF16.5x
LTM P/TB3.6x
LTM P/B9.4x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $121.35 versus fair value $115.56 (-4.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Launch of Airbnb Services and Experiences. Bear case centers on Regulatory Contagion. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
1. AI-driven personalization (Project Hawaii) could add 300bps to Gross Booking Value (GBV) through higher conversion. 2. International expansion in under-penetrated markets like Brazil (now a top 5 market) provides a long runway for double-digit growth. 3. Exceptional FCF generation ($4.6B) allows for continued aggressive share cannibalization.
Bear Case
1. Regulatory 'contagion' from NYC and Barcelona could permanently impair supply in high-value urban centers. 2. Rising SG&A (up to 32.1% of revenue) and R&D (19.2%) suggest the company is having to spend more to maintain its growth rate. 3. Heavy insider selling signals that those closest to the business see limited near-term upside.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Launch of Airbnb Services and Experiences. This addresses market concerns about growth maturity by expanding the addressable market beyond s...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
2026 FIFA World Cup Supply Expansion. Similar to the 40,000 listings added for the Paris Olympics, this event will drive a significant spike...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Airbnb is relevant now because the stock is trading near its 52-week low ($99.88) despite record FCF generation, creating a tension between...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Regulatory Contagion. The mechanism is a permanent impairment of supply as more cities adopt the 'NYC Model' (92% listing reduction) or 'Bar...
Concern: Medium
Margin Erosion. Rising SG&A and R&D expenses could permanently lower the operating margin floor from 23% to sub-20%.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is generally strong but characterized by a high degree of founder control. The primary risk is the 'Founder Voting Agreement,' w...
Recent Activity
2026-02-03Analyst Target
-7.03%Firm: UBS Price Target: $149.00 Price When Posted: $131.31 Implied Upside: +13.5%
2025-08-07SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.02%Airbnb reports Q2 2025 revenue of $3.1B, up 13% YoY, with strong growth in bookings and margins.
2025-02-14SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+14.45%Nathan Blecharczyk and Gioacchino Curiale reported 11.7% and 1.1% beneficial ownership respectively of Airbnb Class A common stock as of December 31, 2024.
2024-11-08SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.66%Airbnb reports Q3 2024 revenue of $3.7B, up 10% YoY, with net income of $1.4B and strong free cash flow of $1.1B
2024-08-07SEC Filing (8-K)
-13.38%Airbnb reports Q2 2024 revenue of $2.75B, up 11% YoY, with net income of $555M and strong free cash flow of $1.0B
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$3
Base
$119
Bull
$121