ADI
Analog Devices, Inc.$354.35
Unclear
Target $337.66
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Semiconductors • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$354.35-4.7%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$259.74
(27% below current)
Fair Value
$337.66
(5% below current)
Stop Loss
$171.06
(52% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$363.20
52 Week Low$158.65
Avg. 3 Month Volume4.05M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin62.8%
LTM EBITDA Margin47.0%
LTM EBIT Margin30.2%
LTM Operating Margin29.2%
LTM ROA5.7%
LTM ROE7.9%
LTM ROIC23.4%
LTM ROCE8.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$155.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$161.1B
Shares Outstanding488.87M
Total Debt (MM)$8.68B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.91B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$5.78B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth25.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-2.2%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-4.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-6.2%
Valuation
Street Target Price$374.42
LTM EV/Revenue13.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit21.8x
LTM EV/EBIT45.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA29.2x
LTM P/E57.4x
LTM EV/FCF34.9x
LTM P/FCF33.6x
LTM P/TB11.6x
LTM P/B4.6x
Dividend Yield1.2%
Payout Ratio72.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $354.35 versus fair value $337.66 (-4.7% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Q2 FY2026 Revenue Performance: Management has guided for $3.5 billion in revenue, which would represent a significant sequential acceleration and validate the cyclical recovery thesis. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion in Automotive: Increased competition from peers like Texas Instruments or NXP could lead to pricing pressure in the automotive segment, which grew only 8% in the most recent quarter. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
AI-driven demand in data centers and ATE is accelerating, with these segments growing 50% and 40% respectively in FY2025. The Maxim acquisition is delivering hundreds of millions in synergies, on track for a $1 billion target, which will drive structural margin expansion.
Bear Case
The semiconductor industry remains inherently cyclical, and a prolonged downturn in the automotive or industrial sectors could lead to underutilization and margin compression. The current valuation of 32.4x EV/EBITDA is historically high and leaves little room for execution errors.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Q2 FY2026 Revenue Performance: Management has guided for $3.5 billion in revenue, which would represent a significant sequential acceleratio...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Maxim Synergy Realization: Continued evidence of reaching the $1 billion revenue synergy target by FY2027 would provide a structural boost t...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Analog Devices is currently at a critical juncture as it transitions from a cyclical recovery to a structural growth phase powered by AI, ma...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat Erosion in Automotive: Increased competition from peers like Texas Instruments or NXP could lead to pricing pressure in the automotive...
Concern: Low
Inventory Correction Overhang: If the 'above-seasonal' industrial growth reported recently is actually a result of customer restocking rathe...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is strong but tempered by an alignment gap. While the board provides robust oversight and has recently added AI expe...
Recent Activity
2025-11-25SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.27%Analog Devices reports strong Q4 and FY2025 financial results with record revenue and cash returns
2025-08-20SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.26%Analog Devices reports Q3 FY2025 revenue of $2.88 billion with 25% growth
2025-02-19SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.74%Analog Devices reports Q1 FY2025 revenue of $2.42 billion with double-digit growth
2024-05-22SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.86%Analog Devices reports Q2 FY2024 revenue of $2.16 billion amid macro headwinds
2023-05-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.83%Analog Devices reports record Q2 FY2023 revenue of $3.26 billion
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$171
Bear
$314
Base
$411
Bull
$354