ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company$68.57
Hold
Target $76.08
Report: Feb 19, 2026Consumer Defensive • Agricultural Farm Products • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$68.57+11.0%
Rec: HoldConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$58.52
(15% below current)
Fair Value
$76.08
(11% above current)
Stop Loss
$40.98
(40% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$74.19
52 Week Low$40.98
Avg. 3 Month Volume3.98M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin6.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin3.8%
LTM EBIT Margin2.3%
LTM Operating Margin1.2%
LTM ROA2.1%
LTM ROE4.8%
LTM ROIC5.2%
LTM ROCE5.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$35.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$43.7B
Shares Outstanding484.00M
Total Debt (MM)$9.76B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.01B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$8.74B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-6.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-7.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-23.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-34.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$60.00
LTM EV/Revenue0.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit8.7x
LTM EV/EBIT23.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA14.3x
LTM P/E32.4x
LTM EV/FCF10.4x
LTM P/FCF8.3x
LTM P/TB0.8x
LTM P/B1.5x
Dividend Yield2.1%
Payout Ratio68.9%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $68.57 versus fair value $76.08 (11.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Clarity on U.S. Bear case centers on Lower-for-Longer Cyclical Downturn. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Starter sizing and Transitional horizon.
Bull Case
Normalization of crush margins to $60-$70/ton; successful execution of $500M-$750M cost-saving program; expansion of high-margin BioSolutions and carbon capture initiatives.
Bear Case
Structural oversupply in global crushing capacity; persistent weakness in starch and sweetener demand; follow-on shareholder litigation from the Nutrition segment accounting scandal.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Clarity on U.S. Biofuel Policy (RVO). Clarity on the timing and magnitude of RVO mandates will allow refiners to resume normal purchasing pa...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Realization of $500M-$750M Cost Savings. Execution of the 'Drive for Excellence' program will expand operating margins by 50-70 basis points...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
ADM is relevant at this moment because it has just cleared its primary legal and regulatory overhang (SEC settlement) while trading at a mul...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Lower-for-Longer Cyclical Downturn. A structural oversupply of global crushing capacity could prevent margins from mean-reverting, keeping R...
Concern: Low
Internal Control Failures. Failure to fully remediate the material weaknesses identified in the Nutrition segment could lead to further rest...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is currently 'Transitioning.' The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. **Status Quo**: Management executes the $500M...
Recent Activity
2025-11-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.37%ADM reports Q3 2025 results with $108M net earnings, $220M portfolio optimization charges, and revises full-year guidance
2025-08-05SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.00%ADM reports Q2 2025 results with adjusted EPS of $0.93, tightens full-year guidance.
2025-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.06%ADM reports Q4 and full-year 2024 results, announces $500-$750M cost savings target and dividend increase
2024-11-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.97%ADM reports preliminary Q3 2024 results with $18M net earnings, $461M Wilmar impairment charge, and plans to restate 2023/2024 financials
2024-01-27SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.55%ADM Chair and CEO Juan Luciano addresses intersegment sales investigation and reaffirms company strength.
Valuation Table
9.4/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$6
Bear
$109
Base
$143
Bull
$69