ADSK
Autodesk, Inc.$246.94
Hold
Target $295.66
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Software - Application • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$246.94+19.7%
Rec: HoldConviction: High
Entry Target
$227.43
(8% below current)
Fair Value
$295.66
(20% above current)
Stop Loss
$189.08
(23% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term (3+ Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$329.09
52 Week Low$215.01
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.20M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin91.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin25.0%
LTM EBIT Margin22.2%
LTM Operating Margin21.9%
LTM ROA10.0%
LTM ROE39.9%
LTM ROIC74.4%
LTM ROCE26.1%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$50.5B
Enterprise Value (MM)$51.0B
Shares Outstanding213.00M
Total Debt (MM)$2.73B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.25B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$485.00M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth17.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR12.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR16.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR11.4%
Valuation
Street Target Price$341.45
LTM EV/Revenue7.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit7.8x
LTM EV/EBIT31.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA28.4x
LTM P/E44.9x
LTM EV/FCF21.2x
LTM P/FCF21.0x
LTM P/TB6.6x
LTM P/B16.6x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $246.94 versus fair value $295.66 (19.7% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Normalization of Free Cash Flow: As the new transaction model completes its rollout, the bill-to-cash timing headwind will recede, revealing the company's true 2.7B+ FCF capacity. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion from AI Disruption: Competitors like Synopsys and Cadence are investing heavily in AI-driven design, which could eventually challenge Autodesk's workflow dominance if its AI tools (Forma) fail to gain traction. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Half sizing and Long-Term (3+ Years) horizon.
Bull Case
1. Dominant 90%+ gross margins and workflow lock-in provide a massive margin of safety for long-term compounding. 2. AI integration in Forma and Fusion is seeing early success, with a 60% acceptance rate for features like AutoConstrain. 3. Aggressive capital allocation, including 4.6B in buybacks over five years, has reduced share count by 3% annually.
Bear Case
1. Free cash flow conversion has deteriorated to 73% due to transaction model shifts and rising receivables. 2. SG&A remains high at 43.2% of revenue, suggesting cost discipline is not yet fully realized. 3. Incremental ROIC has turned negative (-11.5%), indicating recent AI investments are not yet yielding efficient returns.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Normalization of Free Cash Flow: As the new transaction model completes its rollout, the bill-to-cash timing headwind will recede, revealing...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Activist-Driven Margin Expansion: Continued pressure from Starboard Value is likely to result in further SG&A reductions and a more discipli...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Autodesk is at a critical juncture as it resolves its accounting investigation and integrates a new CFO under activist scrutiny, making the...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat Erosion from AI Disruption: Competitors like Synopsys and Cadence are investing heavily in AI-driven design, which could eventually cha...
Concern: Medium
Sustained Cash Conversion Weakness: If the new transaction model continues to drive high receivables and working capital needs, the company'...
Concern: Medium
The governance outcome tree suggests three paths: 1. Status Quo: Management executes the margin expansion plan, and the stock re-rates as FC...
Recent Activity
2025-08-29SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.09%Autodesk reports Q2 FY26 revenue growth of 17%
2024-11-27SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.59%Autodesk reports Q3 FY25 revenue growth of 11% to $1.57B with strong billings performance
2024-06-12SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.45%Autodesk reports Q1 FY25 revenue growth of 12%
2023-11-22SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.90%Autodesk reports Q3 FY24 revenue growth of 10% to $1.41B with strong EBA performance
2023-02-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-12.95%Autodesk reports Q4 FY2023 and full-year results with record revenue and billings growth
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade