AEE
Ameren Corporation$111.52
Sell
Target $99.05
Report: Mar 09, 2026Utilities • Regulated Electric • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$111.52-11.2%
Rec: SellConviction: Medium
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$99.05
(11% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$113.93
52 Week Low$91.77
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.73M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin40.8%
LTM EBITDA Margin45.2%
LTM EBIT Margin26.9%
LTM Operating Margin23.0%
LTM ROA3.1%
LTM ROE11.5%
LTM ROIC3.7%
LTM ROCE5.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$30.4B
Enterprise Value (MM)$50.2B
Shares Outstanding271.40M
Total Debt (MM)$19.83B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$13.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$19.82B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA5.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth15.4%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR3.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR7.8%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR9.0%
Valuation
Street Target Price$115.25
LTM EV/Revenue5.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit14.0x
LTM EV/EBIT21.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA12.6x
LTM P/E20.9x
LTM EV/FCF-61.1x
LTM P/FCF-37.0x
LTM P/TB0.6x
LTM P/B2.3x
Dividend Yield2.6%
Payout Ratio52.8%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $111.52 versus fair value $99.05 (-11.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Conversion of 2.2 GW Data Center Pipeline Management must demonstrate that the signed Energy Service Agreements (ESAs) are translating into billable load and actual revenue growth to validate the current market premium. Bear case centers on Regulatory Lag and Rate Compression The primary risk is that state commissions in Missouri or Illinois refuse to grant the full rate increases required to support the $31.8 billion CapEx plan, leading to a squeeze on margins and a potent... Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The 2.2 GW of executed Energy Service Agreements (ESAs) provide a significant load-growth tailwind that could drive EPS toward the upper end of the 6-8% CAGR guidance. Additionally, the transmission segment (ATXI) offers a higher, more predictable ROE with less political friction than retail rate cases.
Bear Case
ROIC of 2.3% remains significantly below the 9.5% cost of capital, indicating that massive CapEx is destroying shareholder value. Furthermore, the requirement for $4 billion in equity issuance through 2030 will continue to dilute existing shareholders, while Debt/Equity of 148% leaves little room for error.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Conversion of 2.2 GW Data Center Pipeline Management must demonstrate that the signed Energy Service Agreements (ESAs) are translating into...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Missouri and Illinois Rate Case Rulings Constructive outcomes in upcoming rate reviews are critical to recovering the $4.2 billion in annual...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Ameren is at a critical juncture as it begins the execution of its largest-ever capital plan ($31.8 billion) while simultaneously navigating...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Regulatory Lag and Rate Compression The primary risk is that state commissions in Missouri or Illinois refuse to grant the full rate increas...
Concern: Medium
Interest Rate Sensitivity and Leverage With $19.8 billion in debt and a Debt/Equity ratio of 148%, Ameren is highly sensitive to sustained h...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is professional but lacks alignment with minority shareholders. The board is highly independent and possesses deep regulated inf...
Recent Activity
2025-04-04Market Movement
-5.79%Market/Sector Move -5.79%
Valuation Table
8.1/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$35
Bear
$99
Base
$127
Bull
$112