AIZ
Assurant, Inc.$222.91
Unclear
Target $219.44
Report: Mar 09, 2026Financial Services • Insurance - Specialty • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$222.91-1.6%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$168.80
(24% below current)
Fair Value
$219.44
(2% below current)
Stop Loss
$174.97
(22% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term (3+ Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$246.31
52 Week Low$174.97
Avg. 3 Month Volume397K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin77.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin11.3%
LTM EBIT Margin9.3%
LTM Operating Margin9.4%
LTM ROA2.4%
LTM ROE15.6%
LTM ROIC3.6%
LTM ROCE3.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$10.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$11.2B
Shares Outstanding48.63M
Total Debt (MM)$2.21B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.83B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$372.80M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth7.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR7.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR31.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR50.9%
Valuation
Street Target Price$253.60
LTM EV/Revenue0.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit1.1x
LTM EV/EBIT9.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA7.7x
LTM P/E12.4x
LTM EV/FCF7.0x
LTM P/FCF6.8x
LTM P/TB0.3x
LTM P/B1.8x
Dividend Yield1.1%
Payout Ratio14.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $222.91 versus fair value $219.44 (-1.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on National rollout of the home warranty program with Compass International Holdings across six US real estate brands. Bear case centers on Moat erosion in the Global Housing segment due to regulatory shifts or competitive disruption. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Connected Living revenue growth of 14% and 12 consecutive quarters of double-digit renters insurance expansion demonstrate strong organic momentum. AI-driven claims automation and the national rollout of the home warranty program with Compass International provide clear paths for margin expansion and new revenue streams.
Bear Case
Incremental ROIC of 8.4% remains below the 9.5% cost of capital, suggesting that recent reinvestments are not yet creating excess value. Significant insider selling, including over $4 million from the CEO at prices near $220, signals that management may view the stock as fully valued.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
National rollout of the home warranty program with Compass International Holdings across six US real estate brands. This catalyst addresses...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
AI-driven claims automation and digital platform upgrades. This addresses the persistent SG&A pressure (currently 67.8% of revenue) by autom...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Assurant is relevant for analysis now due to its recent Q4 2025 earnings beat and the authorization of a new $700 million buyback program, w...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion in the Global Housing segment due to regulatory shifts or competitive disruption. If lender-placed insurance requirements are e...
Concern: Medium
Failure to lift incremental ROIC above the 9.5% WACC hurdle. Persistent value-destructive reinvestment would eventually erode the company's...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is positive regarding capital return but cautious regarding alignment. The board features elite-tier financial gover...
Recent Activity
2026-02-11SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.65%Assurant reports strong Q4 2025 and full year 2025 financial results with double-digit earnings growth and raises 2026 outlook.
2025-08-06SEC Filing (8-K)
+11.23%Assurant reports strong Q2 2025 results and raises outlook
2025-04-09Market Movement
+7.52%Market/Sector Move +7.52%
2024-11-06Market Movement
+6.88%Market/Sector Move +6.88%
2023-11-01SEC Filing (8-K)
+11.81%Assurant reports exceptional Q3 2023 financial results with significant earnings growth and increases 2023 outlook.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$212
Bear
$279
Base
$322
Bull
$223