AKAM
Akamai Technologies, Inc.$98.39
Unclear
Target $92.33
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Software - Infrastructure • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$98.39-6.2%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$71.02
(28% below current)
Fair Value
$92.33
(6% below current)
Stop Loss
$67.51
(31% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$121.12
52 Week Low$67.51
Avg. 3 Month Volume4.34M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin58.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin31.9%
LTM EBIT Margin15.0%
LTM Operating Margin13.5%
LTM ROA4.2%
LTM ROE9.6%
LTM ROIC6.4%
LTM ROCE6.8%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$16.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$21.4B
Shares Outstanding144.22M
Total Debt (MM)$5.68B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$930.23M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$4.75B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth5.4%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR5.2%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR2.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-1.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$111.18
LTM EV/Revenue5.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit8.6x
LTM EV/EBIT33.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA15.9x
LTM P/E36.8x
LTM EV/FCF30.6x
LTM P/FCF23.8x
LTM P/TB2.2x
LTM P/B3.3x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $98.39 versus fair value $92.33 (-6.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Scaling of the Akamai Inference Cloud (AIC) beyond the initial 20 global locations. Bear case centers on Moat erosion and commoditization of the core CDN business. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
1. Successful transformation into a high-growth security firm, with Security revenue now exceeding $2.2 billion annually. 2. Significant cost savings from 'insourcing' cloud spend, estimated at over $100 million per year. 3. Market-leading edge AI inference capabilities through the Akamai Inference Cloud.
Bear Case
1. Structural margin compression as high-margin Delivery revenue (down 2% YoY) is replaced by capital-intensive Compute revenue. 2. Value-destructive reinvestment, evidenced by a negative incremental ROIC of -5.0%. 3. Increasing leverage, with Debt/Equity reaching 114% to fund buybacks and hardware inflation.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Scaling of the Akamai Inference Cloud (AIC) beyond the initial 20 global locations. Successful deployment of Blackwell GPUs and sell-out of...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Critical
Realization of colocation and bandwidth cost efficiencies. A stabilization or expansion of gross margins would refute the bear thesis of per...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Akamai is relevant for analysis now due to the recent 14% price reaction to its Q4 2025 earnings beat and the authorization of a massive $1....
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat erosion and commoditization of the core CDN business. If Cloudflare continues to gain market share (currently 80% in DDoS), Akamai may...
Concern: Medium
Capital misallocation and hardware inflation. Continued high CapEx (19.5% of revenue) in a negative incremental ROIC environment could lead...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate but requires monitoring. The governance outcome tree suggests: 1. Status Quo: Management continues the capital-inten...
Recent Activity
2026-02-20SEC Filing (8-K)
-14.07%Akamai Technologies reported Q4 2025 and full-year 2025 financial results with strong growth in security and cloud infrastructure services.
2025-11-07SEC Filing (8-K)
+14.71%Akamai Technologies reported Q3 2025 revenue of $1.055 billion, up 5% year-over-year, with Cloud Infrastructure Services revenue growing 39% and GAAP EPS up 155%.
2025-08-08SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.66%Akamai Technologies reported Q2 2025 revenue of $1.043 billion, up 7% year-over-year, with Cloud Infrastructure Services revenue growing 30% and non-GAAP EPS up 9%.
2025-05-09SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.76%Akamai reports Q1 2025 revenue of $1.015B, up 3% YoY
2025-02-21SEC Filing (8-K)
-21.73%Akamai Technologies reported Q4 2024 and full-year 2024 financial results with revenue growth and strong profitability.
Valuation Table
9.6/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$42
Bear
$62
Base
$83
Bull
$98