ALB
Albemarle Corporation$166.35
Sell
Target $91.30
Report: Feb 20, 2026Basic Materials • Chemicals - Specialty • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$166.35-45.1%
Rec: SellConviction: Low
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$91.30
(45% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$206.00
52 Week Low$49.43
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.77M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin13.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin10.0%
LTM EBIT Margin-2.8%
LTM Operating Margin-7.1%
LTM ROA-4.0%
LTM ROE-6.8%
LTM ROIC-1.0%
LTM ROCE-1.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$21.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$22.7B
Shares Outstanding117.70M
Total Debt (MM)$3.19B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.62B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.58B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.1x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-4.4%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-11.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-47.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$185.93
LTM EV/Revenue4.4x
LTM EV/Gross Profit34.0x
LTM EV/EBIT-155.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA44.3x
LTM P/E-31.2x
LTM EV/FCF31.3x
LTM P/FCF29.2x
LTM P/TB1.4x
LTM P/B2.2x
Dividend Yield0.9%
Payout Ratio-28.2%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $166.35 versus fair value $91.3 (-45.1% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Closing of the Ketjen and Eurecat divestitures. Bear case centers on The 'Western Refining Trap' and structural cost disadvantage. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
A rapid recovery in lithium prices driven by stationary storage demand (+105% YTD) could restore margins to the 20% range. Successful execution of the $660 million Ketjen divestiture and further cost cuts could stabilize the balance sheet without further dilution.
Bear Case
A 'lower-for-longer' lithium price environment could force a breach of the tightening leverage covenants (moving to 3.50x by Q3 2026). Continued reliance on high-cost Western refining assets may lead to further multi-hundred-million dollar impairments, further eroding tangible book value.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Closing of the Ketjen and Eurecat divestitures. This is expected to generate $660 million in pretax proceeds, which is critical for delevera...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Q3 2026 Covenant Tightening. The leverage ratio covenant in the 2022 Credit Agreement tightens to 3.50x in Q3 2026. Failure to significantly...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Albemarle is relevant for analysis now because the stock has rallied nearly 70% from its 52-week low despite a -7.1% operating margin, creat...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
The 'Western Refining Trap' and structural cost disadvantage. Albemarle's Australian and U.S. conversion assets may be structurally unable t...
Concern: High
Balance sheet and covenant risk in a 'lower-for-longer' pricing environment. If lithium prices remain near $9-10/kg, the company may fail to...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is 'Adequate but Unaligned.' While the board structure is professionally sound and includes directors with relevant...
Recent Activity
2026-02-12SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.41%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 Contact: invest@albemarle.com 1.980.308.6194 Albemarle Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results CHARLOTTE, N. C. – Feb. 11, 2026 - Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB), a...
2026-01-30SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
-5.57%Excerpt: SCHEDULE 13G/A 1 primary_doc.xml SCHEDULE 13G/A 0000038777-25-000218 0000038777 XXXXXXXX LIVE 3 COMMON STOCK, $.
2025-12-05Analyst Target
+5.08%Firm: UBS Price Target: $185.00 Price When Posted: $119.14 Implied Upside: +55.3%
2025-11-04SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
-8.37%Excerpt: SCHEDULE 13G/A 1 primary_doc.xml SCHEDULE 13G/A 0000038777-25-000139 0000038777 XXXXXXXX LIVE 2 COMMON STOCK, $.
2025-05-10SEC Filing (SC 13G)
+6.28%Excerpt: SCHEDULE 13G 1 primary_doc.xml SCHEDULE 13G 0000038777 XXXXXXXX LIVE COMMON STOCK, $.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$44
Bear
$78
Base
$136
Bull
$166