ALL
The Allstate Corporation$211.62
Buy
Target $438.09
Report: Mar 08, 2026Financial Services • Insurance - Property & Casualty • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$211.62+107.0%
Rec: BuyConviction: High
Entry Target
$211.62
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$438.09
(107% above current)
Stop Loss
$176.00
(17% below current)
Position Size
Full
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$216.75
52 Week Low$176.00
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.68M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin43.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin20.8%
LTM EBIT Margin20.1%
LTM Operating Margin30.9%
LTM ROA8.6%
LTM ROE39.0%
LTM ROIC11.1%
LTM ROCE11.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$53.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$60.6B
Shares Outstanding261.50M
Total Debt (MM)$7.49B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$678.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$6.81B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth5.6%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR9.6%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$242.13
LTM EV/Revenue0.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit2.0x
LTM EV/EBIT4.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA4.3x
LTM P/E5.3x
LTM EV/FCF6.1x
LTM P/FCF5.4x
LTM P/TB0.5x
LTM P/B1.8x
Dividend Yield1.9%
Payout Ratio10.4%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $211.62 versus fair value $438.09 (107.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Execution of the $4 billion share repurchase program. Bear case centers on Catastrophe frequency and severity. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Full sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
Operational turnaround is complete, with net margins expanding to 15.0% and ROIC reaching 11.1%. The $4 billion buyback program provides a massive tailwind for EPS growth, while the Arity platform creates a structural data advantage that peers cannot easily replicate.
Bear Case
Regulatory lag in key states like New York and New Jersey could cap policy growth and pressure combined ratios. Catastrophe losses remain a volatile tail risk, and heavy insider selling of $112.9 million over the last 12 months suggests a lack of personal conviction among top executives.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Execution of the $4 billion share repurchase program. This will retire approximately 7.3% of the float, providing a direct boost to EPS and...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Regulatory approval for auto rate increases in New York. This addresses the primary market concern regarding 'regulatory lag' and would allo...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Allstate is relevant for analysis now because it has just completed a record-breaking fiscal year with 15.0% net margins, yet it trades at a...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Catastrophe frequency and severity. A major hurricane or wildfire event could lead to significant underwriting losses, temporarily impairing...
Concern: Medium
Regulatory lag in rate approvals. Insurance commissioners in CA, NY, and NJ may resist necessary rate hikes, leading to margin compression i...
Concern: Medium
Allstate's leadership are strong stewards of capital, though the heavy insider selling ($112.9 million net sales) creates a point of frictio...
Recent Activity
2026-01-13Analyst Target
-5.28%Firm: Wells Fargo Price Target: $223.00 Price When Posted: $208.66 Implied Upside: +6.9%
2025-07-31SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.71%Allstate reported Q2 2025 results with net income of $2.1B and completed Group Health sale.
2024-08-14SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.23%Allstate agreed to sell Employer Voluntary Benefits business to The Standard for $2.0 billion.
2023-08-02SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.77%Allstate reported a $1.4 billion net loss in Q2 2023 due to $2.7 billion in catastrophe losses and underwriting losses, despite 14.4% revenue growth.
2023-07-20SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.85%Allstate reported June 2023 catastrophe losses of $1.01 billion after-tax and expanded homeowners rate reporting.
Valuation Table
9.2/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$4
Base
$212