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ALTO

Alto Ingredients, Inc.
$2.97UnclearTarget $3.14Report: Jan 14, 2026Basic Materials • Chemicals - Specialty • Turnaround Candidate

Price History

Pelican View
Current$2.97+5.7%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$2.42
(19% below current)
Fair Value
$3.14
(6% above current)
Stop Loss
$0.76
(74% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional

Key Metrics

Market Data
52 Week High$3.18
52 Week Low$0.76
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.31M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin2.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin-1.5%
LTM EBIT Margin-4.2%
LTM Operating Margin-4.3%
LTM ROA-13.0%
LTM ROE-23.7%
LTM ROIC-9.0%
LTM ROCE-11.1%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$207.3M
Enterprise Value (MM)$293.9M
Shares Outstanding74.78M
Total Debt (MM)$119.69M
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$33.14M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$86.55M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-6.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-8.0%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-12.8%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$3.50
LTM EV/Revenue0.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit16.0x
LTM EV/EBIT-7.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA-21.4x
LTM P/E-4.0x
LTM EV/FCF-29.4x
LTM P/FCF-20.7x
LTM P/TB0.5x
LTM P/B0.9x
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout Ratio0.0%
About the Company

Alto Ingredients, Inc. is a leading producer and distributor of specialty alcohols, renewable fuels, and essential ingredients in the United States. The company operates five alcohol production facilities located in Illinois, Oregon, and Idaho, with an annual alcohol production capacity of 350 million gallons. The company's history involves a strategic shift from a primary focus on commodity fuel-grade ethanol towards higher-margin specialty alcohols and essential ingredients. Its primary products serve five key markets: Health, Home & Beauty; Food & Beverage; Industry & Agriculture; Essential Ingredients; and Renewable Fuels.

Revenue Generation

The company generates revenue primarily through the sale of alcohols and essential ingredients produced at its facilities. Revenue is derived from three distinct segments: Pekin Campus production (production and sale of alcohols and essential ingredients from its Illinois facilities), Marketing and distribution (marketing of company-produced products and third-party fuel-grade ethanol), and Western production (production and sale of renewable fuels and essential ingredients from its Oregon and Idaho facilities). The company also operates an Eagle Alcohol business that breaks bulk and distributes specialty alcohols. Key customer types include the health and beauty industry, food and beverage producers, agricultural markets, and the renewable fuels sector.

Investment Thesis
Executive SummarySituation: Alto Ingredients is a distressed ethanol producer currently undergoing a high-stakes pivot toward specialty alcohols and carbon capture, complicated by an active board refresh forced by the Radoff/Torok activist group. Debate: The market views the company as a structurally unprofitable commodity player with a precarious liquidity position, while we believe the underlying asset value of the Pekin Campus and the potential for 45Z tax credit monetization are being obscured by the failing Western segment. Conclusion: While the asset-based floor is significant, the current expected return of 5.7% to our $3.14 fair value suggests the risk/reward is not yet asymmetric enough for a new position; we recommend a Starter posture only at lower entry levels.

Recent Activity

2025-11-06+22.41%
Alto Ingredients reported Q3 2025 results showing significant YoY improvement across all segments.
2025-06-26+7.41%
Alto Ingredients held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders.
2025-05-23+5.66%
Alto Ingredients received Nasdaq delisting notice for sub-$1.00 bid price.

Valuation Table

MethodImplied ValueWeightWeighted Value
DCF$2.4056%$1.33
NLV$4.0744%$1.81
Total Weighted$3.14