AMCR
Amcor plc$50.09
Sell
Target $36.27
Report: Feb 19, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Packaging & Containers • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$50.09-27.6%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$36.27
(28% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$50.94
52 Week Low$37.95
Avg. 3 Month Volume6.36M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin18.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin12.4%
LTM EBIT Margin6.4%
LTM Operating Margin5.7%
LTM ROA1.8%
LTM ROE6.1%
LTM ROIC5.4%
LTM ROCE5.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$18.4B
Enterprise Value (MM)$33.3B
Shares Outstanding462.05M
Total Debt (MM)$16.02B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.06B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$14.96B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA6.1x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth44.8%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR9.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR4.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-28.5%
Valuation
Street Target Price$26.24
LTM EV/Revenue1.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit9.0x
LTM EV/EBIT26.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA13.7x
LTM P/E30.8x
LTM EV/FCF39.1x
LTM P/FCF21.6x
LTM P/TB1.0x
LTM P/B1.6x
Dividend Yield6.4%
Payout Ratio196.7%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $50.09 versus fair value $36.27 (-27.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Synergy Realization Miss: Failure to deliver the promised $70-80 million in quarterly synergy benefits in FY2026. Bear case centers on Lower-for-longer cyclical downturn in consumer demand, particularly in North American beverage and European flexibles. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Successful realization of $260 million in synergies drives EPS to $4.15; pivot to healthcare packaging captures high-margin growth; free cash flow of $1.8 billion enables rapid deleveraging.
Bear Case
Persistent volume declines in North American beverage segments offset synergy gains; high leverage (6.5x) leads to credit rating pressure; negative tangible book value ($0.00 floor) offers no downside protection.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Synergy Realization Miss: Failure to deliver the promised $70-80 million in quarterly synergy benefits in FY2026. This would invalidate the...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Credit Rating Downgrade: Fitch or S&P downgrading Amcor to BBB- or below if leverage remains above 3.3x. This would significantly increase i...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Amcor is relevant now because the stock has rallied 8% on synergy optimism, creating a perfect exit opportunity before the structural realit...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Lower-for-longer cyclical downturn in consumer demand, particularly in North American beverage and European flexibles. This mechanism impair...
Concern: High
Balance sheet insolvency or covenant breach due to excessive leverage. If EBITDA falls below $1.8 billion, the 3.9x leverage covenant could...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate but constrained by the current financial crisis. The board is experienced, with veterans from MillerCoors and Kimber...
Recent Activity
2026-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.10%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 Amcor Reports Solid Second Quarter Results and Reaffirms Fiscal 2026 Guidance Highlights - Three Months Ended December 31, 2025 • Net sales $5,449 million, up 68% driven by the...
2026-01-16SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.29%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Exhibit 99.1 Amcor Completes One-for-Five Reverse Stock Split Zurich — January 15, 2026 — Amcor plc (NYSE: AMCR; ASX: AMC), a global leader in developing and producing responsible packaging solutions,...
2025-08-14SEC Filing (8-K)
-11.87%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 Amcor reports fiscal 2025 Q4 results. Expects strong earnings growth in fiscal 2026. Fourth Quarter ending June 30, 2025 highlights: • All-stock acquisition of Berry Global Group,...
2025-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.13%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 Amcor reports second quarter and first half result. Reaffirms fiscal 2025 outlook December 2024 Quarter Highlights: • Further sequential improvement in year over year volume...
2024-11-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.82%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 Amcor reports first quarter result and reaffirms outlook for fiscal 2025 Highlights - Three Months Ended September 30, 2024 • Third consecutive quarter of sequential improvement...
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$16
Bear
$46
Base
$65
Bull
$50