AME
AMETEK, Inc.$241.46
Sell
Target $201.47
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Industrial - Machinery • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$241.46-16.6%
Rec: SellConviction: Low
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$201.47
(17% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$242.05
52 Week Low$145.02
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.39M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin36.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin31.1%
LTM EBIT Margin25.4%
LTM Operating Margin25.8%
LTM ROA9.5%
LTM ROE14.3%
LTM ROIC47.3%
LTM ROCE14.3%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$49.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$50.9B
Shares Outstanding229.59M
Total Debt (MM)$2.28B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$457.95M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.83B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth6.6%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR6.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR7.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR8.3%
Valuation
Street Target Price$241.64
LTM EV/Revenue6.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit19.1x
LTM EV/EBIT27.1x
LTM EV/EBITDA22.1x
LTM P/E33.2x
LTM EV/FCF30.5x
LTM P/FCF29.4x
LTM P/TB10.3x
LTM P/B4.6x
Dividend Yield0.6%
Payout Ratio19.3%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $241.46 versus fair value $201.47 (-16.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Successful FARO/LKC integrations doubling EBITDA to 30% over 3 years, addressing market concerns on acquisition dilution (60bps FY2025) and validating moat via $90M incremental R&D spend. Bear case centers on Moat erosion from technological disruption or low-cost competitors impairing pricing power, leading to permanent ROIC decline below 40%. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Superior profitability with 25.8% operating margins (+570bps vs peer median 20.1%) and 47.3% ROIC (+1840bps vs peers); record $3.58B backlog supports low-mid single-digit organic growth; $5B deployment capacity for accretive M&A maintaining 0.8x leverage.
Bear Case
Growth deceleration to 6.6% YoY vs 10.4% 5Y average; -46.3% incremental ROIC and 0.2x M&A effectiveness on $5.7B spend; premium 24.8x EV/EBITDA vs peer median 18.6x amid tariff delays ($70M revenue at risk).
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Successful FARO/LKC integrations doubling EBITDA to 30% over 3 years, addressing market concerns on acquisition dilution (60bps FY2025) and...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Re-acceleration of organic growth to mid-single digits from $3.58B backlog, countering deceleration fears (6.6% FY2025 vs 10.4% 5Y avg). Rat...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
AMETEK relevance peaks now amid record backlog and $5B M&A capacity post-FARO, with Q1 2026 sales up 10% guided.
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion from technological disruption or low-cost competitors impairing pricing power, leading to permanent ROIC decline below 40%.
Concern: High
Acquisition integration failure diluting returns, as -46.3% incremental ROIC on $5.7B spend cascades to margin compression.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is solid with 89% independent board, ROTC/TSR-linked LTI (55% PSUs for CEO vesting 50-200%), and no proxy fight; outcome tree ir...
Recent Activity
2025-10-30SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.67%AMETEK reports record Q3 2025 sales up 11% to $1.89B with adjusted EPS of $1.89
2024-10-31SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.54%AMETEK reports Q3 2024 sales up 5% to $1.71B with adjusted EPS of $1.66
2024-08-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.27%AMETEK reports Q2 2024 sales up 5% to $1.73B with adjusted EPS of $1.66
2024-05-02SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.12%AMETEK reports record Q1 2024 sales up 9% to $1.74B with adjusted EPS of $1.64
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$156
Bear
$3
Base
$264
Bull
$241