AMGN
Amgen Inc.$379.27
Sell
Target $310.12
Report: Mar 07, 2026Healthcare • Drug Manufacturers - General • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$379.27-18.2%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$310.12
(18% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$391.29
52 Week Low$261.43
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.78M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin67.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin46.0%
LTM EBIT Margin31.9%
LTM Operating Margin24.7%
LTM ROA8.6%
LTM ROE96.7%
LTM ROIC16.5%
LTM ROCE17.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$189.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$235.1B
Shares Outstanding538.00M
Total Debt (MM)$54.60B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$9.13B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$45.48B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth10.0%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR11.8%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR11.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR5.6%
Valuation
Street Target Price$347.73
LTM EV/Revenue6.4x
LTM EV/Gross Profit9.5x
LTM EV/EBIT20.0x
LTM EV/EBITDA13.9x
LTM P/E24.6x
LTM EV/FCF29.0x
LTM P/FCF23.4x
LTM P/TB3.8x
LTM P/B21.9x
Dividend Yield2.0%
Payout Ratio49.8%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $379.27 versus fair value $310.12 (-18.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Resolution of the $10.7 billion IRS tax dispute. Bear case centers on Clinical success of MariTide in obesity. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The MariTide obesity candidate succeeds in Phase III with monthly or quarterly dosing, capturing 10% of the global obesity market; the rare disease franchise achieves double-digit growth as international expansion for Tepezza accelerates.
Bear Case
The $10.7 billion IRS tax dispute results in a massive cash outflow that wipes out more than a year of earnings; patent cliffs for Prolia, Xgeva, and Enbrel erode 30% of total revenue by 2027.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Resolution of the $10.7 billion IRS tax dispute. A negative ruling would likely trigger a massive de-rating as the market realizes the scale...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Patent expirations for Prolia and Xgeva in 2025. The entry of biosimilars will directly test the durability of Amgen's volume-driven growth...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Amgen is relevant for analysis at this moment because it is trading near its 52-week high despite a 21% decline in free cash flow and a loom...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Clinical success of MariTide in obesity. If Phase III data shows superior efficacy and safety with quarterly dosing, the stock could re-rate...
Concern: Medium
Favorable settlement of the IRS tax dispute. A settlement significantly below the $10.7 billion claim would remove a major overhang and allo...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is cautious due to the ongoing securities litigation and the $10.7 billion tax dispute. The Governance Outcome Tree...
Recent Activity
2026-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.15%Amgen reports strong 2025 financial results with double-digit revenue and earnings growth
2025-11-05SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.81%Amgen reports Q3 2025 financial results with 12% revenue growth to $9.6 billion and strong product performance
2025-08-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.14%Amgen reports Q2 2025 financial results with 9% revenue growth to $9.2 billion and significant EPS improvement
2025-02-05SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.50%Amgen reports Q4 2024 and full year 2024 financial results with strong revenue growth
2024-11-12Analyst Target
-7.14%Firm: Cantor Fitzgerald Analyst: Olivia Brayer Price Target: $405.00 Price When Posted: $298.84 Implied Upside: +35.5%
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$154
Bear
$349
Base
$474
Bull
$379