AMP
Ameriprise Financial, Inc.$468.91
Buy
Target $667.21
Report: Mar 08, 2026Financial Services • Asset Management • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$468.91+42.3%
Rec: BuyConviction: High
Entry Target
$468.91
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$667.21
(42% above current)
Stop Loss
$439.00
(6% below current)
Position Size
Full
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$550.18
52 Week Low$396.14
Avg. 3 Month Volume686K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin48.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin28.9%
LTM EBIT Margin29.4%
LTM Operating Margin26.1%
LTM ROA1.9%
LTM ROE58.1%
LTM ROIC2.7%
LTM ROCE2.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$40.5B
Enterprise Value (MM)$35.2B
Shares Outstanding91.18M
Total Debt (MM)$5.86B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$11.16B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-5.30B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-1.1x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth9.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR10.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR22.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR27.2%
Valuation
Street Target Price$554.40
LTM EV/Revenue1.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit3.6x
LTM EV/EBIT6.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA6.6x
LTM P/E11.4x
LTM EV/FCF4.3x
LTM P/FCF5.0x
LTM P/TB0.2x
LTM P/B6.2x
Dividend Yield1.8%
Payout Ratio19.3%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $468.91 versus fair value $667.21 (42.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Signature Wealth Platform Adoption: The full rollout of this unified management account platform is expected to accelerate wrap-account inflows and deepen client relationships. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion through Competitive Disruption: Low-cost competitors like Charles Schwab could aggressively target Ameriprise's advisor network, leading to a loss of AUM and pricing power. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Full sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
1. Unrivaled capital return profile, with 101% of operating earnings returned to shareholders in Q4 2025. 2. Widening moat through the Signature Wealth platform, which is accelerating wrap-account inflows (up 17% to $670B). 3. Massive valuation floor provided by $11.16B in cash and a negative net debt position.
Bear Case
1. Structural margin compression, as gross margins fell from 50.6% to 48.4% in one year. 2. Value-destructive reinvestment, with a 2.7% ROIC significantly trailing the 10.9% WACC. 3. Heavy insider selling, with $47.2M in divestments over the last 12 months.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Signature Wealth Platform Adoption: The full rollout of this unified management account platform is expected to accelerate wrap-account infl...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Continued Aggressive Buybacks: The execution of the new $4.5 billion share repurchase authorization through 2027 will continue to shrink the...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Ameriprise is currently trading near the bottom of its 52-week range ($396 - $550) despite reporting record AUM of $1.7 trillion and raising...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat Erosion through Competitive Disruption: Low-cost competitors like Charles Schwab could aggressively target Ameriprise's advisor network...
Concern: Low
Regulatory and Litigation Risk: Increased scrutiny on fiduciary duties and 401(k) fees could lead to higher compliance costs or material set...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate for a mature compounder. While the combined Chairman/CEO role and heavy insider selling ($47.2M) are minor red flags...
Recent Activity
2025-10-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.11%Ameriprise Financial reports Q3 2025 results with 22% increase in adjusted earnings per share to $9.87
2023-04-25SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.32%Ameriprise Financial reports Q1 2023 results with 25% increase in adjusted earnings per share to $7.25
2023-03-09SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.35%Ameriprise Financial issued $750 million of 5.15% Senior Notes due 2033.
2022-11-10Market Movement
+5.25%Market/Sector Move +5.25%
2022-10-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.12%Ameriprise Financial reports Q3 2022 earnings with adjusted operating earnings per share of $5.24, down 11% year-over-year
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$439
Bear
$574
Base
$664
Bull
$469