AMT
American Tower Corporation$187.64
Unclear
Target $210.20
Report: Mar 08, 2026Real Estate • REIT - Specialty • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$187.64+12.0%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$161.69
(14% below current)
Fair Value
$210.20
(12% above current)
Stop Loss
$129.35
(31% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Strategic
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$234.33
52 Week Low$165.08
Avg. 3 Month Volume3.23M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin74.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin59.6%
LTM EBIT Margin40.4%
LTM Operating Margin45.5%
LTM ROA4.0%
LTM ROE68.1%
LTM ROIC5.9%
LTM ROCE7.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$80.4B
Enterprise Value (MM)$123.8B
Shares Outstanding467.58M
Total Debt (MM)$44.96B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.61B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$43.36B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA6.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-1.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-0.2%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR0.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR12.2%
Valuation
Street Target Price$214.60
LTM EV/Revenue11.6x
LTM EV/Gross Profit15.7x
LTM EV/EBIT28.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA19.5x
LTM P/E31.8x
LTM EV/FCF32.7x
LTM P/FCF21.3x
LTM P/TB2.2x
LTM P/B22.0x
Dividend Yield3.9%
Payout Ratio125.7%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $187.64 versus fair value $210.2 (12.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is insufficiently stable. Debate: Bull case depends on DISH Wireless Churn and Litigation Outcome Realization of the $210M annual revenue loss from DISH lease defaults would validate our bear case and force a re-rating of the U.S. Bear case centers on Excessive Financial Leverage The 6.8x Net Debt/EBITDA ratio leaves the company with no margin for error. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Proponents argue that 5G densification and AI-driven demand at CoreSite will drive high-single-digit AFFO growth. They point to the 5.1% revenue growth in FY2025 and the company's ability to generate $3.8B in free cash flow as evidence of a successful turnaround.
Bear Case
The bear case focuses on the unsustainable 6.8x leverage and the negative tangible book value of -$49.4 per share. Critics highlight the DISH churn risk, which could impair 4% of U.S. revenue, and the fact that incremental ROIC is deeply negative at -106.7%, suggesting that new capital investments are destroying shareholder value.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
DISH Wireless Churn and Litigation Outcome Realization of the $210M annual revenue loss from DISH lease defaults would validate our bear cas...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
2026 Organic Growth Miss If consolidated organic tenant billings fall below the 4% target (excluding DISH), it will prove that the 5G densif...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
American Tower is relevant for analysis now because it is at a technical and fundamental crossroads, trading below its 200-day SMA of $194.9...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Excessive Financial Leverage The 6.8x Net Debt/EBITDA ratio leaves the company with no margin for error. Rising interest rates or a decline...
Concern: High
Carrier Consolidation and Churn The merger of major tenants (e.g., T-Mobile/Sprint) and the financial distress of others (DISH) leads to sit...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is poor due to the massive disconnect between management's public optimism and their personal actions. Insiders have...
Recent Activity
2025-02-25SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.12%American Tower reports Q4 and full year 2024 financial results with strong performance
2024-04-10Market Movement
-5.63%Market/Sector Move -5.63%
2023-10-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.11%American Tower reports Q3 2023 financial results with strong organic growth
Valuation Table
5.7/10Directional
Scenario Range
$53
Bear
$149
Base
$207
Bull
$188