AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.$204.79
Hold
Target $239.79
Report: Feb 19, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Specialty Retail • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$204.79+17.1%
Rec: HoldConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$184.45
(10% below current)
Fair Value
$239.79
(17% above current)
Stop Loss
$161.38
(21% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$258.60
52 Week Low$161.38
Avg. 3 Month Volume49.86M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin50.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin23.0%
LTM EBIT Margin13.8%
LTM Operating Margin11.2%
LTM ROA10.8%
LTM ROE21.9%
LTM ROIC17.4%
LTM ROCE19.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$2,235.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$2,301.9B
Shares Outstanding10.71B
Total Debt (MM)$152.99B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$86.81B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$66.18B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.4x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth12.4%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR11.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR62.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$283.97
LTM EV/Revenue3.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit6.4x
LTM EV/EBIT23.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA14.0x
LTM P/E28.8x
LTM EV/FCF205.6x
LTM P/FCF199.7x
LTM P/TB2.8x
LTM P/B5.4x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $204.79 versus fair value $239.79 (17.1% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Trainium 3 Supply Commitment: Management expects Trainium 3 supply to be fully committed by mid-2026. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion in Retail: Intensifying competition from Walmart's supply chain automation could permanently impair Amazon's pricing power and retail return on capital. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Starter sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
AWS re-acceleration to 24% growth and a $244B backlog validate the massive AI investment; Advertising revenue growth of 22% provides a high-margin offset to retail costs; Incremental ROIC of 14.9% exceeds the 11.7% WACC, confirming value creation.
Bear Case
The $200B 2026 capex plan threatens to create a structural free cash flow deficit; Heavy insider selling of $5.7B suggests management sees limited near-term upside; Intensifying competition from Walmart in e-commerce and Microsoft in AI could compress long-term margins.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Trainium 3 Supply Commitment: Management expects Trainium 3 supply to be fully committed by mid-2026. This would validate the custom silicon...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Project Kuiper Commercial Launch: The planned commercial launch of the satellite network in 2026 will transition the program from a pure cos...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Amazon is currently relevant for analysis because it is trading near 5-year P/E lows while simultaneously embarking on its largest-ever capi...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat Erosion in Retail: Intensifying competition from Walmart's supply chain automation could permanently impair Amazon's pricing power and...
Concern: High
AI Overcapacity: The $200B capex plan could lead to significant overcapacity if enterprise AI adoption slows, leading to structural multiple...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is adequate. The board is highly independent and features former CEOs from PepsiCo and Corning, providing strong ove...
Recent Activity
2026-02-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.55%Amazon reports Q4 2025 results with 14% revenue growth to $213.4B and $21.2B net income
2025-10-31SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.58%Amazon reports Q3 2025 results with 13% revenue growth to $180.2B and $21.2B net income
2025-08-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.27%Amazon.com, Inc. reports Q2 2025 financial results with 13% net sales growth and $18.2 billion net income.
2025-04-10Market Movement
-5.17%Market/Sector Move -5.17%
2024-11-01SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.19%Amazon.com, Inc. reports Q3 2024 financial results with 11% net sales growth and $15.3 billion net income.
Valuation Table
7.9/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$36
Bear
$240
Base
$284
Bull
$205