APA
APA Corporation$30.07
Buy
Target $40.93
Report: Feb 19, 2026Energy • Oil & Gas Exploration & Production • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$30.07+36.1%
Rec: BuyConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$30.07
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$40.93
(36% above current)
Stop Loss
$22.10
(27% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Strategic (2-3 Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$45.66
52 Week Low$13.58
Avg. 3 Month Volume7.93M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin38.6%
LTM EBITDA Margin53.7%
LTM EBIT Margin28.7%
LTM Operating Margin31.5%
LTM ROA8.0%
LTM ROE24.5%
LTM ROIC13.4%
LTM ROCE17.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$15.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$19.0B
Shares Outstanding353.00M
Total Debt (MM)$4.49B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$516.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$3.98B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-5.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-8.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-10.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-28.6%
Valuation
Street Target Price$27.75
LTM EV/Revenue2.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.3x
LTM EV/EBIT7.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA3.8x
LTM P/E10.5x
LTM EV/FCF10.7x
LTM P/FCF8.4x
LTM P/TB0.8x
LTM P/B2.5x
Dividend Yield2.4%
Payout Ratio25.1%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $30.07 versus fair value $40.93 (36.1% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Suriname GranMorgu Project Milestones Progress toward first oil in 2028 will validate the company's offshore strategy and likely trigger a re-rating as the market begins to price in the project's 220,000 bpd capacity. Bear case centers on Commodity Price Volatility A sustained decline in oil and gas prices would impair the company's ability to fund its capital-intensive projects in Suriname and Egypt, potentially leading to a breach of its 65% debt-to-capital ratio covenant. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Half sizing and Strategic (2-3 Years) horizon.
Bull Case
Suriname GranMorgu project provides a generational growth engine with first oil expected in 2028; structural cost savings of $350 million are being realized two years ahead of schedule; Egypt gas pricing uplift significantly improves international cash flow realizations.
Bear Case
Geopolitical and currency risk in Egypt may prevent effective cash repatriation; steep decline rates on recently acquired Permian assets could require higher sustaining capital; North Sea abandonment liabilities represent a $1.2 billion NPV headwind.
Key Catalysts
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Critical
Suriname GranMorgu Project Milestones Progress toward first oil in 2028 will validate the company's offshore strategy and likely trigger a r...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Egypt Gas Production Ramp-up Increasing gas production to 540-550 MMcf/d under the new pricing framework will significantly boost internatio...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
APA is highly relevant at this moment as it has just achieved its multi-year cost-saving goals two years early, providing a clear operationa...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Commodity Price Volatility A sustained decline in oil and gas prices would impair the company's ability to fund its capital-intensive projec...
Concern: High
Egypt Geopolitical and Currency Risk Currency devaluation or political instability in Egypt could lead to further delays in cash repatriatio...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong, characterized by a disciplined financial approach and a clear commitment to shareholder returns. The board's decision...
Recent Activity
2025-11-06SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.14%APA Corporation reported Q3 2025 financial and operational results with production exceeding guidance and accelerated cost savings.
2025-09-10Analyst Target
+7.53%Firm: Raymond James Price Target: $28.00 Price When Posted: $23.29 Implied Upside: +20.2%
2025-08-07SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.75%APA Corporation reported Q2 2025 earnings with production growth and cost reduction initiatives
2025-06-21SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.91%Rebecca A. Hoyt announces retirement as CFO and Controller
2025-04-10SEC Filing (DEFA14A)
-12.63%APA Corporation files definitive proxy statement for 2025 annual meeting
Valuation Table
9.4/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$7
Bear
$350
Base
$73
Bull
$30