APH
Amphenol Corporation$146.06
Unclear
Target $155.70
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Hardware, Equipment & Parts • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$146.06+6.6%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$119.77
(18% below current)
Fair Value
$155.70
(7% above current)
Stop Loss
$114.05
(22% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$167.04
52 Week Low$56.45
Avg. 3 Month Volume10.26M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin36.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin29.7%
LTM EBIT Margin25.7%
LTM Operating Margin25.4%
LTM ROA15.3%
LTM ROE35.8%
LTM ROIC39.6%
LTM ROCE27.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$155.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$159.4B
Shares Outstanding1.23B
Total Debt (MM)$15.50B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$11.43B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$4.07B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth51.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR22.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR32.1%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR30.3%
Valuation
Street Target Price$173.11
LTM EV/Revenue6.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit18.7x
LTM EV/EBIT26.9x
LTM EV/EBITDA23.2x
LTM P/E36.4x
LTM EV/FCF36.3x
LTM P/FCF35.4x
LTM P/TB6.6x
LTM P/B11.6x
Dividend Yield0.6%
Payout Ratio21.4%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $146.06 versus fair value $155.7 (6.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Full integration and realization of $0.15 EPS accretion from the CommScope CCS acquisition. Bear case centers on Moat erosion due to technological disruption in high-speed interconnects or a shift away from copper in AI server architectures. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
1. AI-driven IT datacom demand is a structural step-change, not a cycle, evidenced by 38% organic growth in FY2025. 2. The CommScope acquisition is highly accretive, projected to add $0.15 to 2026 EPS. 3. Industry-leading ROIC of 39.6% demonstrates superior capital efficiency compared to the 23.9% peer average.
Bear Case
1. Valuation is at a historical extreme (42.0x P/E vs 32.9x 5-year average), leaving no room for execution hiccups. 2. Massive insider selling ($724M net) suggests management sees the stock as fully valued. 3. Geopolitical exposure in China (22% of sales) and labor disputes in Mexico pose tail risks to the 25.4% operating margin.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Full integration and realization of $0.15 EPS accretion from the CommScope CCS acquisition. This will validate management's ability to extra...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Sustained bookings in the IT datacom segment exceeding $2.0B per quarter. This would refute bear concerns that the AI boom is a one-time Cap...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Amphenol is at a critical juncture following its record FY2025 results and the announcement of a major leadership transition, making it a pi...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion due to technological disruption in high-speed interconnects or a shift away from copper in AI server architectures. This would...
Concern: High
Geopolitical and labor disruptions in China and Mexico. With 22% of sales in China and recent USMCA labor disputes in Mexico, supply chain s...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong but currently in a transitional phase. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. Status Quo (High Probability): Norwitt...
Recent Activity
2026-02-06SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+6.74%FMR LLC and Abigail P. Johnson report 7.1% beneficial ownership of Amphenol Class A Common Stock.
2026-01-28SEC Filing (8-K)
-12.20%Amphenol reports record Q4 and full year 2025 results with 49% and 52% sales growth respectively
2026-01-15Analyst Target
+5.12%Firm: Goldman Sachs Price Target: $183.00 Price When Posted: $146.75 Implied Upside: +24.7%
2025-04-24Analyst Target
+6.87%Firm: UBS Analyst: Joseph Spak Price Target: $85.00 Price When Posted: $75.17 Implied Upside: +13.1%
2025-04-23SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.20%Amphenol reports record first quarter 2025 results with 48% sales growth and 58% EPS increase.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$114
Bear
$166
Base
$207
Bull
$146