APO
Apollo Global Management, Inc.$111.24
Buy
Target $193.84
Report: Mar 13, 2026Financial Services • Asset Management - Global • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$111.24+74.3%
Rec: BuyConviction: High
Entry Target
$111.24
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$193.84
(74% above current)
Stop Loss
$119.26
(7% above current)
Position Size
Full
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$157.28
52 Week Low$99.56
Avg. 3 Month Volume5.19M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin39.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin20.1%
LTM EBIT Margin15.7%
LTM Operating Margin21.9%
LTM ROA0.8%
LTM ROE16.2%
LTM ROIC1.2%
LTM ROCE1.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$64.4B
Enterprise Value (MM)$57.2B
Shares Outstanding594.60M
Total Debt (MM)$13.36B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$20.59B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-7.23B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-1.1x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth22.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR43.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$157.25
LTM EV/Revenue1.8x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.5x
LTM EV/EBIT11.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA8.9x
LTM P/E19.0x
LTM EV/FCF7.9x
LTM P/FCF8.9x
LTM P/TB0.1x
LTM P/B2.8x
Dividend Yield1.4%
Payout Ratio27.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $111.24 versus fair value $193.84 (74.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Sustained 20%+ FRE Growth. Bear case centers on Regulatory Tightening on Insurance-Asset Manager Nexus. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Full sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
Apollo is successfully democratizing private equity, with global wealth inflows reaching $18 billion in 2025. The FRE engine is growing at 23% YoY, and the firm's asset-light model generates massive free cash flow, with $7.25 billion produced in FY2025.
Bear Case
Regulatory scrutiny of the insurance-asset manager nexus (NAIC) could lead to higher capital requirements, and sustained spread compression in the retirement services business (SRE) may continue to weigh on overall net margins, which fell to 10.6% in FY2025.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Sustained 20%+ FRE Growth. Delivering on management's guidance for fee-related earnings growth will validate the durability of the asset man...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Expansion into the 401(k) and Retail Wealth Markets. Successful scaling of daily NAV products and institutional partnerships (e.g., Schroder...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Apollo is highly relevant at this moment due to the recent 24% decline in net income which has created a valuation disconnect, providing an...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Regulatory Tightening on Insurance-Asset Manager Nexus. Changes in NAIC capital requirements could force Athene to hold more capital, reduci...
Concern: Medium
Sustained Spread Compression. If funding costs rise faster than asset yields, SRE margins could remain depressed, weighing on overall corpor...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is strong. The board is well-structured with independent chairs for Audit (Jessica Bibliowicz) and Compensation (Mar...
Recent Activity
2026-02-19SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.60%Excerpt: | UNITED STATES | | SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION | | WASHINGTON, D. C. 20549 | | FORM 8-K | | CURRENT REPORT | | PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(D) | | OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 | Date of Report (Date of earliest...
2026-02-06SEC Filing (SC 13G)
+5.51%Beneficial ownership update (SC 13G).
2025-11-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.29%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) Document Apollo Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results New York, November 4, 2025 — Apollo Global Management, Inc. (NYSE: APO) (together with its consolidated subsidiaries, “Apollo”) today reported results for the third...
2025-10-16Press Release
-5.37%Apollo Names Eiji Ueda Head Of Asia Pacific As Firm Marks 20 Years In Region
2025-04-18SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.64%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) EXHIBIT 99.1 Apollo Announces Changes to its Board of Directors Gary Cohn to join the Board as Lead Independent Director Outgoing Chair and Lead Independent Director Jay Clayton assuming role as interim US Attorney for...
Valuation Table
9.7/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$119
Bear
$367
Bull
$111