APP
AppLovin Corporation$404.39
Sell
Target $239.68
Report: Feb 19, 2026Technology • Software - Application • Early-Stage HypergrowthSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$404.39-40.7%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$239.68
(41% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$745.61
52 Week Low$200.50
Avg. 3 Month Volume6.04M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin87.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin77.1%
LTM EBIT Margin73.6%
LTM Operating Margin75.8%
LTM ROA52.8%
LTM ROE249.2%
LTM ROIC79.8%
LTM ROCE80.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$122.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$123.3B
Shares Outstanding338.15M
Total Debt (MM)$3.54B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.49B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.06B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth23.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR27.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR101.8%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$667.53
LTM EV/Revenue22.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit24.6x
LTM EV/EBIT30.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA29.2x
LTM P/E36.7x
LTM EV/FCF31.0x
LTM P/FCF30.8x
LTM P/TB23.0x
LTM P/B57.3x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $404.39 versus fair value $239.68 (-40.7% expected return), and valuation confidence is partial. Debate: Bull case depends on SEC Data-Collection Probe Resolution: A definitive ruling or settlement regarding AppLovin's data practices will either validate the AXON moat or force a structural reset of the business model. Bear case centers on Regulatory Intervention and Data Privacy Enforcement: The SEC probe or changes to Apple/Google privacy frameworks could invalidate the AXON AI engine's ability to track users, collapsing ROAS and advertiser demand. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
AXON 2.0 drives industry-leading 84% Adjusted EBITDA margins and 66% YoY revenue growth; the e-commerce self-service rollout provides a massive new TAM; inclusion in the S&P 500 validates the platform's scale.
Bear Case
SEC investigation into data practices threatens the core algorithmic moat; $1.29 billion in insider selling signals a valuation top; Meta's entry into mediation could compress margins and erode market share.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
SEC Data-Collection Probe Resolution: A definitive ruling or settlement regarding AppLovin's data practices will either validate the AXON mo...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Meta Mediation Market Share Gains: Meta's aggressive entry into the mediation space could directly challenge AppLovin's 60% market share in...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
AppLovin is at a critical juncture following a 19.7% post-earnings price drop and the confirmation of an SEC probe, making the sustainabilit...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Regulatory Intervention and Data Privacy Enforcement: The SEC probe or changes to Apple/Google privacy frameworks could invalidate the AXON...
Concern: Medium
Competitive Displacement by Platform Giants: Meta or Google could integrate mediation more deeply into their OS-level tools, commoditizing A...
Concern: Medium
The Stewardship Verdict is cautious due to the dual-class structure and massive insider selling. The Governance Outcome Tree is as follows:...
Recent Activity
2026-02-12SEC Filing (8-K)
-19.68%AppLovin reports Q4 and full year 2025 results with 66% revenue growth and strong cash flow
2026-01-14Analyst Target
-7.61%Firm: Evercore ISI Analyst: Robert Coolbrith Price Target: $835.00 Price When Posted: $668.63 Implied Upside: +24.9%
2025-10-07Analyst Target
+7.64%Firm: Oppenheimer Price Target: $740.00 Price When Posted: $628.27 Implied Upside: +17.8%
2025-09-29Analyst Target
+6.34%Firm: Morgan Stanley Price Target: $750.00 Price When Posted: $669.86 Implied Upside: +12.0%
2025-08-07SEC Filing (8-K)
+11.97%AppLovin reports Q2 2025 results with 77% revenue growth and completes mobile gaming business sale
Valuation Table
7.2/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$175
Bear
$403
Bull
$404