APTV
Aptiv PLC$71.40
Unclear
Target $70.19
Report: Mar 07, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Auto - Parts • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$71.40-1.7%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Low
Entry Target
$53.99
(24% below current)
Fair Value
$70.19
(2% below current)
Stop Loss
$45.00
(37% below current)
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$88.93
52 Week Low$47.19
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.36M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin19.1%
LTM EBITDA Margin10.9%
LTM EBIT Margin6.0%
LTM Operating Margin5.8%
LTM ROA0.7%
LTM ROE1.8%
LTM ROIC6.7%
LTM ROCE6.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$14.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$20.9B
Shares Outstanding214.84M
Total Debt (MM)$7.95B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.85B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$6.10B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth3.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR5.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR9.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-27.4%
Valuation
Street Target Price$100.13
LTM EV/Revenue1.0x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.4x
LTM EV/EBIT17.0x
LTM EV/EBITDA9.4x
LTM P/E89.5x
LTM EV/FCF13.5x
LTM P/FCF9.6x
LTM P/TB0.9x
LTM P/B1.6x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $71.4 versus fair value $70.19 (-1.7% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Completion of the EDS spin-off into Versagen. Bear case centers on Lower-for-longer cyclical downturn in global vehicle production. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
The EDS spin-off will unlock a high-margin (20% EBITDA) software pure-play; non-automotive revenue is growing at mid-teens rates; and the stock is trading at a historical trough of 0.9x Tangible Book Value.
Bear Case
Debt-funded buybacks have impaired the balance sheet while ROIC has collapsed to 0.9%; the 648 million dollar Wind River impairment suggests structural overpayment for technology; and EV adoption slowdowns are forcing repeated revenue guidance cuts.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Completion of the EDS spin-off into Versagen. This structural change removes the capital-intensive, lower-margin wiring business, allowing t...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Exit of stranded costs post-separation. Management expects to eliminate 50 million dollars in stranded costs by 2028, which will provide a d...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Aptiv is at a critical juncture as it prepares for the April 2026 spin-off, making the next two quarters essential for monitoring separation...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Lower-for-longer cyclical downturn in global vehicle production. A prolonged decline in LVP would prevent the volume flow-through required t...
Concern: Medium
Balance sheet leverage during the trough. With 2.8x net leverage and 7.95 billion dollars in debt, a breach of the 3.5x credit agreement cov...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is adequate but vulnerable. The board is highly independent and includes directors with deep cyclical experience (e....
Recent Activity
2026-01-14Analyst Target
-6.03%Firm: UBS Price Target: $99.00 Price When Posted: $88.25 Implied Upside: +12.2%
2026-01-08Analyst Target
+5.23%Firm: Piper Sandler Price Target: $103.00 Price When Posted: $82.15 Implied Upside: +25.4%
2024-10-31SEC Filing (8-K)
-17.72%Aptiv reports Q3 2024 results with record adjusted earnings per share despite revenue decline
2024-09-10SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.36%Aptiv PLC announces intent to redeem $700 million of 2.396% Senior Notes due 2025
2024-08-01SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.39%Aptiv reports Q2 2024 record operating earnings and announces new $5B share repurchase program
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade