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ASML

ASML Holding N.V.
$1065.52UnclearTarget $1060.30Report: Jan 16, 2026TechnologySemiconductorsMature Compounder

Price History

Pelican View
Current$1065.52-0.5%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$815.62
(23% below current)
Fair Value
$1060.30
(0% below current)
Stop Loss
$529.01
(50% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term

Key Metrics

Market Data
52 Week High$1,493.48
52 Week Low$578.51
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.70M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin52.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin37.3%
LTM EBIT Margin30.7%
LTM Operating Margin30.0%
LTM ROA20.6%
LTM ROE52.1%
LTM ROIC68.7%
LTM ROCE48.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$544.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$542.0B
Shares Outstanding387.30M
Total Debt (MM)$2.70B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$5.13B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-2.42B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth14.0%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR8.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR12.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR9.6%
Valuation
Street Target Price$1,458.50
LTM EV/Revenue14.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit31.9x
LTM EV/EBIT47.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA38.8x
LTM P/E49.5x
LTM EV/FCF70.6x
LTM P/FCF70.9x
LTM P/TB13.6x
LTM P/B24.7x
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout Ratio28.5%
About the Company

ASML is a global leader in the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company's systems consist of lithography, metrology, and inspection systems, which together form a holistic lithography solution. ASML acts as a system architect and integrator, collaborating closely with customers, suppliers, and partners across its innovation ecosystem to innovate the most advanced lithography systems in the world. The company's purpose is to unlock the potential of people and society by pushing technology to new limits.

Revenue Generation

ASML generates revenue primarily through the sale of integrated patterning solutions for the semiconductor industry. The main portion of net sales is derived from volume purchase agreements (VPAs) with customers, which contain multiple performance obligations including the sales of systems, system-related options and upgrades, installation, training, and extended and enhanced warranties. The company also generates significant revenue from its installed base management portfolio, which includes a wide range of service and field option sales designed to improve throughput, patterning performance, and overlay, thereby optimizing the cost of ownership over a system's lifetime. The company's primary geographic markets are Asia, the US, and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA).

Investment Thesis
Executive SummaryASML maintains a 100% monopoly on the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology essential for the global AI infrastructure build-out, yet the stock is currently caught in a transition-year digestion phase. The debate centers on whether the massive pre-investment for High-NA EUV systems will yield the guided 2025-2026 ramp or if geopolitical export restrictions and China revenue normalization (expected to drop to 20% of sales) will permanently impair the growth trajectory. At current levels, the stock is trading at fair value, offering no margin of safety for the execution risks inherent in the next-generation technology rollout.

Recent Activity

2026-01-15+5.37%
Firm: KGI Securities Analyst: Leon Chen Price Target: $1,415.00 Price When Posted: $1,263.72 Implied Upside: +12.0%
2025-07-16-8.33%
ASML reported Q2 2025 results with €7.7 billion net sales and maintained 15% full-year growth outlook.
2025-04-16-7.06%
ASML reported Q1 2025 results with €7.7 billion net sales and maintained €30-35 billion full-year guidance.

Valuation Table

MethodImplied ValueWeightWeighted Value
DCF$1,125.1359%$661.58
Comps$1,056.4735%$372.93
Historicals$435.016%$25.67
Total Weighted$1,060.18