AXON
Axon Enterprise, Inc.$550.19
Sell
Target $296.59
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Aerospace & Defense • Early-Stage HypergrowthSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$550.19-46.1%
Rec: SellConviction: Low
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$296.59
(46% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$885.92
52 Week Low$396.41
Avg. 3 Month Volume974K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin59.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin7.1%
LTM EBIT Margin4.1%
LTM Operating Margin-2.2%
LTM ROA1.9%
LTM ROE4.3%
LTM ROIC2.3%
LTM ROCE2.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$34.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$34.9B
Shares Outstanding79.00M
Total Debt (MM)$1.91B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.20B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$708.52M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth33.4%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR32.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-4.8%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-8.2%
Valuation
Street Target Price$750.00
LTM EV/Revenue12.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit21.0x
LTM EV/EBIT307.9x
LTM EV/EBITDA177.5x
LTM P/E273.9x
LTM EV/FCF464.2x
LTM P/FCF454.8x
LTM P/TB6.3x
LTM P/B10.5x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $550.19 versus fair value $296.59 (-46.1% expected return), and valuation confidence is partial. Debate: Bull case depends on Revenue Deceleration Below 30%: Axon's premium is entirely dependent on its 'Hypergrowth' status. Bear case centers on Competitive Displacement by Motorola Solutions: Motorola's deep relationships in public safety radios provide a natural bundle that could squeeze Axon's body-camera market share. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Axon's $14.4 billion contracted backlog and 124% net revenue retention provide immense visibility into future growth. The 'AI Era Plan' and 'Draft One' software could significantly expand the TAM by automating high-value administrative tasks for law enforcement.
Bear Case
Extreme valuation at 16.2x EV/Sales leaves no room for error, especially as operating margins have turned negative (-2.2%). Massive insider selling ($118.8M) and a 23.4% increase in share count over five years suggest management is prioritizing growth at any cost to shareholders.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Revenue Deceleration Below 30%: Axon's premium is entirely dependent on its 'Hypergrowth' status. A single quarter of sub-30% growth would l...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Regulatory Pushback on 'Draft One' AI: If DOJ or civil rights organizations successfully challenge the use of AI-generated police reports, a...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Axon is relevant for analysis now because it has reached a valuation inflection point where its 16.2x EV/Sales multiple is double the peer m...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Competitive Displacement by Motorola Solutions: Motorola's deep relationships in public safety radios provide a natural bundle that could sq...
Concern: Medium
Inability to Raise Future Capital: Axon's reliance on debt and equity issuance to fund M&A ($1.3B) makes it vulnerable to a tightening credi...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is mixed, leaning toward a 'Status Quo' risk. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. Status Quo: Management contin...
Recent Activity
2026-02-25SEC Filing (8-K)
+17.55%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 CONTACT: Investor Relations Axon Enterprise, Inc. IR@axon.com Axon reports Q4 2025 revenue of $797 million, up 39% year over year • Software & Services revenue grows 40% to $343 million • Net income...
2026-02-05SEC Filing (8-K/A)
-7.20%Axon amends redemption notice for convertible senior notes due to market disruption
2026-01-06Analyst Target
+6.00%Firm: Northcoast Research Analyst: Keith Housum Price Target: $742.00 Price When Posted: $591.16 Implied Upside: +25.5%
2025-12-19SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.49%Axon delivers notice to redeem all outstanding 0.50% convertible senior notes due 2027
2025-11-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.43%Axon Enterprise reports Q3 2025 revenue of $711 million, up 31% year over year
Valuation Table
7.4/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$172
Bear
$444
Bull
$550