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AXP

American Express Company
$379.80UnclearTarget $405.08Report: Jan 14, 2026Financial ServicesFinancial - Credit ServicesMature Compounder

Price History

Pelican View
Current$379.80+6.6%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$311.60
(18% below current)
Fair Value
$405.08
(7% above current)
Stop Loss
$217.83
(43% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term (3+ Years)

Key Metrics

Market Data
52 Week High$387.49
52 Week Low$220.43
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.83M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin100.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin23.3%
LTM EBIT Margin20.6%
LTM Operating Margin20.6%
LTM ROA3.7%
LTM ROE33.5%
LTM ROIC4.6%
LTM ROCEN/A
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$231.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$241.7B
Shares Outstanding695.00M
Total Debt (MM)$57.76B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$47.79B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$9.97B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth10.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR9.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR11.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR16.0%
Valuation
Street Target Price$374.58
LTM EV/Revenue3.6x
LTM EV/Gross Profit3.6x
LTM EV/EBIT17.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA15.5x
LTM P/E21.4x
LTM EV/FCF15.1x
LTM P/FCF14.5x
LTM P/TB0.8x
LTM P/B6.9x
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout Ratio21.3%
About the Company

American Express is a globally integrated payments company founded in 1850. It operates through card-issuing, merchant-acquiring, and card network businesses. The company offers a range of products and services to consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies, and large corporations globally. Key offerings include credit and charge cards, banking and other payment and financing products, merchant acquisition and processing services, network services, travel and lifestyle services, and expense management products and services. The company distributes products through various channels, including mobile and online applications, affiliate marketing, third-party service providers, business partners, in-house sales teams, and direct marketing.

Revenue Generation

American Express generates revenue through several primary streams: discount revenue (fees charged to merchants for accepting card payments), interest income on loans, card member fees (such as annual fees), service fees, and processed revenue. The company operates an integrated payments platform that generates revenue from both the issuer side (through card member relationships) and the network/acquirer side (through merchant relationships). Revenue is derived from a broad customer base of consumers and businesses globally, with significant operations in the United States and internationally.

Investment Thesis
Executive SummaryAmerican Express is successfully pivoting from a volume-driven model to a premium, fee-centric ecosystem that captures high-spending Millennial and Gen Z cohorts, yet the market has largely priced in this 'virtuous cycle.' While the company remains a premier 'cannibal' through aggressive share count reduction, the debate centers on whether fee growth can sustainably outpace rising Variable Customer Engagement (VCE) costs. We conclude that while the business quality is exceptional, the current valuation offers insufficient margin of safety for a new position.

Recent Activity

2025-10-17+7.27%
Q3 2025 revenue increased 11% to record $18.4B with EPS up 19% to $4.14.
2024-04-19+6.23%
Q1 2024 revenue increased 11% to $15.8B with EPS up 39% to $3.33.
2024-01-26+7.10%
American Express achieved record full-year 2023 revenue of $60.5 billion (up 14%) and EPS of $11.21.

Valuation Table

MethodImplied ValueWeightWeighted Value
DCF$388.1350%$194.07
Comps$435.0035%$152.25
Historicals$391.7615%$58.76
Total Weighted$405.08