AXP
American Express Company$339.57
Hold
Target $377.57
Report: Feb 20, 2026Financial Services • Financial - Credit Services • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$339.57+11.2%
Rec: HoldConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$290.44
(14% below current)
Fair Value
$377.57
(11% above current)
Stop Loss
$315.74
(7% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$387.49
52 Week Low$220.43
Avg. 3 Month Volume3.63M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin100.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin23.3%
LTM EBIT Margin20.6%
LTM Operating Margin20.6%
LTM ROA3.7%
LTM ROE33.5%
LTM ROIC4.6%
LTM ROCE4.8%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$207.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$217.7B
Shares Outstanding695.00M
Total Debt (MM)$57.76B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$47.79B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$9.97B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth10.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR9.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR11.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR16.0%
Valuation
Street Target Price$374.58
LTM EV/Revenue3.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit3.2x
LTM EV/EBIT15.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA14.0x
LTM P/E19.2x
LTM EV/FCF13.6x
LTM P/FCF13.0x
LTM P/TB0.7x
LTM P/B6.2x
Dividend Yield1.1%
Payout Ratio21.3%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $339.57 versus fair value $377.57 (11.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Platinum Card Refresh Renewals: The impact of the 2025 fee increase and benefit refresh will flow through the income statement over the next 12-24 months as cards come up for renewal. Bear case centers on Credit Normalization and Macro Sensitivity: A rise in unemployment or a shift in consumer spending could lead to higher write-offs, impairing the 16.2% net margin. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Starter sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
The closed-loop network allows for superior data monetization and fraud prevention compared to open-loop rivals. Furthermore, the untapped B2B SME lending space offers a high-barrier growth runway that could sustain double-digit revenue expansion.
Bear Case
Credit normalization is a looming threat as delinquency rates rise toward pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, the premium card market may be reaching saturation, forcing higher marketing spend and eroding the 20.6% operating margin.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Platinum Card Refresh Renewals: The impact of the 2025 fee increase and benefit refresh will flow through the income statement over the next...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
SME Expense Management Launch: The integration of the Center acquisition is expected to result in a new B2B solution for small businesses.
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
American Express is relevant now because it has just completed a major product refresh cycle and is facing a divergent sentiment gap between...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Credit Normalization and Macro Sensitivity: A rise in unemployment or a shift in consumer spending could lead to higher write-offs, impairin...
Concern: High
Regulatory Intervention: Proposed caps on credit card fees or anti-steering litigation could permanently impair the company's high-margin fe...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is strong but cautious. The board is highly qualified, featuring experts like John Brennan (former Vanguard CEO) and...
Recent Activity
2025-10-17SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.27%American Express reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of $18.4 billion, up 11% year-over-year, and raised full-year guidance.
2024-04-19SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.23%American Express reported first-quarter 2024 revenue of $15.8 billion, up 11% year-over-year, and reaffirmed full-year guidance.
2024-01-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.10%American Express reports record 2023 revenue of $60.5B, up 14%, with full-year EPS of $11.21, and provides 2024 guidance.
2023-10-20SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.38%American Express reported sixth consecutive quarter of record revenue, up 13% to $15.4 billion in Q3 2023, with strong credit performance.
2023-01-27SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.54%American Express delivers on 2022 growth plan with 25% revenue growth and EPS of $9.85, and provides 2023 guidance.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$316
Bear
$411
Base
$488
Bull
$340