BALL
Ball Corporation$64.78
Unclear
Target $62.64
Report: Mar 08, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Packaging & Containers • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$64.78-3.3%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$48.18
(26% below current)
Fair Value
$62.64
(3% below current)
Stop Loss
$43.51
(33% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$68.29
52 Week Low$43.51
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.24M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin19.6%
LTM EBITDA Margin16.0%
LTM EBIT Margin11.3%
LTM Operating Margin10.9%
LTM ROA4.9%
LTM ROE16.9%
LTM ROIC10.2%
LTM ROCE11.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$15.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$21.5B
Shares Outstanding266.71M
Total Debt (MM)$7.01B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.21B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$5.80B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth11.6%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-5.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR3.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR13.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$69.86
LTM EV/Revenue1.6x
LTM EV/Gross Profit8.4x
LTM EV/EBIT14.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA10.2x
LTM P/E17.2x
LTM EV/FCF27.3x
LTM P/FCF20.0x
LTM P/TB1.1x
LTM P/B2.9x
Dividend Yield1.4%
Payout Ratio24.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $64.78 versus fair value $62.64 (-3.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Startup of the Millersburg, Oregon manufacturing plant. Bear case centers on Balance sheet risk from high leverage and a 'lower-for-longer' cyclical downturn. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Secular tailwinds from the plastic-to-aluminum shift (5.9% CAGR) and record adjusted free cash flow of $956 million in 2025 support continued aggressive buybacks. The startup of the Millersburg plant in 2026 will provide much-needed capacity to meet 'sold out' demand in North America.
Bear Case
Rising leverage (129.3% debt-to-equity) and a thin tangible equity cushion ($0.22 per share) leave the company vulnerable to a 'lower-for-longer' cyclical downturn. The loss of high-margin Aerospace earnings reduces the company's overall margin profile and earnings stability.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Startup of the Millersburg, Oregon manufacturing plant. This one-line facility will provide approximately 1 billion cans of capacity, addres...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Execution of $600 million in share repurchases in 2026. Continued aggressive capital return will support EPS growth and signal management's...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Ball Corporation is relevant at this moment as it completes its first full year as a pure-play packaging entity, with the market testing whe...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Balance sheet risk from high leverage and a 'lower-for-longer' cyclical downturn. If global beverage demand remains soft, the company's 2.8x...
Concern: Medium
Adverse product mix shift in North America. A shift toward lower-margin non-alcoholic categories could compress gross margins despite volume...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is adequate, but the governance outcome tree suggests potential friction: 1. Status Quo: Management continues debt-f...
Recent Activity
2026-02-03SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.96%Ball Corporation reported strong 2025 results with record earnings and completed acquisition of Benepack.
2025-08-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.75%Ball Corporation reports Q2 2025 results with EPS of 76 cents and increased full-year guidance
2025-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.90%Ball Corporation reports full-year 2024 results with EPS of $13.00 and Q4 loss of 11 cents
2024-10-31SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.70%Ball Corporation reports Q3 2024 results with EPS of 65 cents and completes Alucan Entec acquisition
2024-04-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.65%Ball Corporation reports Q1 2024 results with significant gain from aerospace sale
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$0
Bear
$77
Bull
$65