BAX
Baxter International Inc.$19.03
Unclear
Target $14.19
Report: Mar 07, 2026Healthcare • Medical - Instruments & Supplies • Turnaround CandidateSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$19.03-25.4%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Low
Entry Target
$10.92
(43% below current)
Fair Value
$14.19
(25% below current)
Stop Loss
$8.74
(54% below current)
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$34.52
52 Week Low$15.73
Avg. 3 Month Volume10.02M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin30.1%
LTM EBITDA Margin5.8%
LTM EBIT Margin-2.9%
LTM Operating Margin-2.7%
LTM ROA-4.6%
LTM ROE-13.8%
LTM ROIC-2.1%
LTM ROCE-1.8%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$8.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$16.4B
Shares Outstanding513.00M
Total Debt (MM)$9.70B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.97B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$7.73B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA11.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-12.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-9.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$19.75
LTM EV/Revenue1.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.8x
LTM EV/EBIT-50.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA24.9x
LTM P/E-9.0x
LTM EV/FCF50.7x
LTM P/FCF26.8x
LTM P/TB0.8x
LTM P/B1.4x
Dividend Yield3.1%
Payout Ratio-28.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $19.03 versus fair value $14.19 (-25.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is insufficiently stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Extension of Novum IQ Pump Shipment Hold Management has already signaled that the hold will likely persist beyond 2025. Bear case centers on Existential Liquidity and Solvency Risk The company is in a 'race against time' to generate enough free cash flow to service its 9.7B debt load. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
New CEO Andrew Hider successfully applies the Danaher Business System to drive 150 bps of operating leverage; Novum IQ pump receives FDA clearance by mid-2026, triggering a 20% revenue rebound in the HST segment.
Bear Case
Novum pump hold extends into 2027, leading to a permanent loss of market share to Becton Dickinson; high leverage (11.8x Net Debt/EBITDA) triggers a covenant breach as EBIT remains negative.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Extension of Novum IQ Pump Shipment Hold Management has already signaled that the hold will likely persist beyond 2025. A formal announcemen...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Covenant Breach on Multicurrency Revolver With negative interest coverage (-1.36x) and negative EBIT, the company is at risk of breaching it...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Baxter is relevant for immediate analysis following its 16% price plunge on February 12, 2026, which confirmed that the 'turnaround' is curr...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Existential Liquidity and Solvency Risk The company is in a 'race against time' to generate enough free cash flow to service its 9.7B debt l...
Concern: Medium
Securities Litigation and Legal Exposure Multiple class-action lawsuits allege that management misled investors regarding the safety of the...
Concern: Medium
The governance structure is adequate for a turnaround, but the lack of 'skin in the game' is a major red flag. Insiders have made zero open-...
Recent Activity
2026-02-13Analyst Target
+5.77%Firm: Barclays Price Target: $25.00 Price When Posted: $18.71 Implied Upside: +33.6%
2026-02-12SEC Filing (8-K)
-16.02%Baxter reports Q4 2025 results with $2.97B sales, 8% growth, and $485M goodwill impairment charge
2025-10-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-14.54%Baxter International reported Q3 2025 results with sales growth and announced new CEO Andrew Hider.
2025-07-31SEC Filing (8-K)
-22.42%Baxter International reported Q2 2025 results in line with guidance and announced new CEO Andrew Hider.
2025-02-20SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.50%Baxter reported Q4 2024 sales of $2.75 billion, up 1% YoY, with adjusted EPS of $0.58 exceeding guidance.
Valuation Table
4.3/10Directional