BDX
Becton, Dickinson and Company$169.94
Unclear
Target $183.58
Report: Mar 07, 2026Healthcare • Medical - Instruments & Supplies • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$169.94+8.0%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$141.22
(17% below current)
Fair Value
$183.58
(8% above current)
Stop Loss
$111.33
(34% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$187.35
52 Week Low$100.31
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.73M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin46.1%
LTM EBITDA Margin23.0%
LTM EBIT Margin11.8%
LTM Operating Margin12.2%
LTM ROA3.2%
LTM ROE6.9%
LTM ROIC8.9%
LTM ROCE5.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$44.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$63.3B
Shares Outstanding284.74M
Total Debt (MM)$19.54B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.02B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$18.52B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth6.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR4.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR5.0%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR4.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$193.80
LTM EV/Revenue2.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit6.3x
LTM EV/EBIT24.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA12.5x
LTM P/E25.5x
LTM EV/FCF24.1x
LTM P/FCF17.0x
LTM P/TB2.3x
LTM P/B1.8x
Dividend Yield2.7%
Payout Ratio68.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $169.94 versus fair value $183.58 (8.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Execution of the $2 billion share repurchase program following the Waters transaction. Bear case centers on Permanent Moat Erosion via China VBP. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
The $4 billion cash distribution from the Waters transaction enables aggressive share repurchases and debt reduction; the BD Excellence program is delivering 170 basis points of gross margin productivity; and the Alaris pump is regaining market share, nearing 60% of the installed base.
Bear Case
Structural margin erosion is occurring as net margins fell to 7.7% due to $275 million in tariff costs; China's VBP program affects 80% of the portfolio, leading to mid-teens revenue declines in that region; and the company carries a negative tangible book value of -$10.6 billion.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Execution of the $2 billion share repurchase program following the Waters transaction. This will reduce the share count by approximately 4-5...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Lapping of the Alaris remediation headwind. As the company nears 60% market share and completes the recall-related costs, the 100-basis-poin...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
BDX is relevant for analysis now because the completion of the Waters spin-off marks the end of a multi-year transformation, providing a cle...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Permanent Moat Erosion via China VBP. The mechanism is a structural shift in pricing power as the Chinese government mandates lower prices f...
Concern: Medium
Tariff-Related Cost Inflation. Continued trade tensions could lead to a doubling of the current $275 million annual tariff expense, which th...
Concern: Medium
The governance outcome tree is currently in the 'Status Quo' phase following the successful 'Compromise' of the Waters spin-off. 1. Status Q...
Recent Activity
2026-02-10SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.34%BD commences tender offers to purchase up to $1.6 billion of outstanding debt securities
2025-08-07SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.85%BD reports Q3 FY25 results with 10.4% revenue growth and raises full-year EPS guidance
2025-05-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-18.13%BD reports Q2 FY2025 revenue of $5.3 billion, up 4.5% YoY, and updates full-year guidance with estimated tariff impact.
2025-02-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.29%BD reports Q1 FY2025 revenue and earnings ahead of expectations
2024-11-07SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.39%BD reports Q4 and FY24 results with strong growth and raises FY25 guidance
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$111
Bear
$196
Base
$271
Bull
$170