BIIB
Biogen Inc.$189.94
Hold
Target $220.57
Report: Mar 07, 2026Healthcare • Drug Manufacturers - General • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$189.94+16.1%
Rec: HoldConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$169.67
(11% below current)
Fair Value
$220.57
(16% above current)
Stop Loss
$136.00
(28% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$202.41
52 Week Low$110.04
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.31M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin75.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin23.7%
LTM EBIT Margin15.7%
LTM Operating Margin15.7%
LTM ROA4.5%
LTM ROE7.3%
LTM ROIC12.3%
LTM ROCE6.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$26.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$30.5B
Shares Outstanding146.80M
Total Debt (MM)$6.58B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$3.01B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$3.57B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth2.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-0.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-18.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-25.1%
Valuation
Street Target Price$207.60
LTM EV/Revenue3.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.1x
LTM EV/EBIT19.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA13.0x
LTM P/E20.8x
LTM EV/FCF15.1x
LTM P/FCF13.3x
LTM P/TB2.0x
LTM P/B1.5x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $189.94 versus fair value $220.57 (16.1% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on FDA PDUFA Date for LEQEMBI Subcutaneous Maintenance (IQLIK). Bear case centers on Accelerated MS Moat Erosion. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Starter sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
The growth portfolio (LEQEMBI, SKYCLARYS) is scaling faster than MS is declining, with growth products up 69% YoY. Subcutaneous LEQEMBI approval in 2026 could drive 70% patient persistency and unlock a massive global market. Cost-cutting is ahead of schedule, with $800 million in net savings providing significant operating leverage.
Bear Case
MS erosion is accelerating, with an 8% decline in 2025 likely to worsen as TYSABRI biosimilars enter the U.S. market. Margin compression is structural, as lower-margin contract manufacturing and high launch costs drag operating margins toward the 15% level. Management credibility is strained by a low 40% EPS guidance hit rate.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
FDA PDUFA Date for LEQEMBI Subcutaneous Maintenance (IQLIK). This is a critical sentiment-shifting catalyst that addresses concerns over pat...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Phase II data readout for BIIB080 (Tau program in Alzheimer's). Success here would validate Biogen's next-generation Alzheimer's pipeline an...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Biogen is relevant for analysis now because it has just reported a stabilization in revenue (2.2% growth) and is entering a 12-month window...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Accelerated MS Moat Erosion. The biggest threat is a faster-than-expected entry of TYSABRI biosimilars in the U.S., which would permanently...
Concern: Medium
Competitive Disruption in Alzheimer's. Eli Lilly's Kisunla could take significant market share if it demonstrates superior clinical utility...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong from an operational and oversight perspective, led by an independent chair with deep pharma finance expertise. However...
Recent Activity
2026-02-06SEC Filing (SC 13G)
+8.53%FMR LLC and Abigail P. Johnson report 6.4% ownership in Biogen Inc. as of December 31, 2025
2026-01-14SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.04%Biogen Inc. expects $222 million acquired in-process research and development charge for Q4 2025
2024-07-26Analyst Target
-7.15%Firm: Goldman Sachs Analyst: Salveen Richter Price Target: $342.00 Price When Posted: $211.17 Implied Upside: +62.0%
2024-02-13SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.39%Biogen reports Q4 2023 results with $2.4B revenue and provides 2024 guidance of $15.00-$16.00 EPS.
2023-11-08SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.67%Biogen Inc. reports Q3 2023 results and updates full year 2023 guidance
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$136
Bear
$331
Bull
$190