BK
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation$116.71
Unclear
Target $124.11
Report: Mar 09, 2026Financial Services • Asset Management • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$116.71+6.3%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$95.47
(18% below current)
Fair Value
$124.11
(6% above current)
Stop Loss
$70.46
(40% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$128.76
52 Week Low$70.46
Avg. 3 Month Volume3.74M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin100.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin44.2%
LTM EBIT Margin35.0%
LTM Operating Margin37.8%
LTM ROA1.1%
LTM ROE12.1%
LTM ROIC1.9%
LTM ROCE1.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$81.5B
Enterprise Value (MM)$3.3B
Shares Outstanding698.30M
Total Debt (MM)$53.29B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$131.52B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-78.23B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-8.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth7.8%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR7.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR21.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR37.1%
Valuation
Street Target Price$133.14
LTM EV/Revenue0.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit0.2x
LTM EV/EBIT0.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA0.4x
LTM P/E15.4x
LTM EV/FCF0.6x
LTM P/FCF15.7x
LTM P/TB0.2x
LTM P/B1.8x
Dividend Yield1.7%
Payout Ratio27.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $116.71 versus fair value $124.11 (6.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on AI platform Eliza scales to 500+ digital employees, unlocking capacity for cross-selling and validating moat durability amid market fears of ROIC fade; FY2025 130+ already drove 500bps leverage on 7.8% growth. Bear case centers on Moat erosion from tech disruption (e.g., blockchain disintermediating custody), impairing pricing power and compressing 37.8% margins toward peer 30.5%. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Switching-cost moat widening via scale (#1 custodian $57.8T AUC/A) and AI (Eliza 130+ digital employees) sustains 37.8% margins > peer 30.5%; cross-selling lifted multi-line clients 64%; $13.8B buybacks at 42.7% yield compound value; negative net debt -$78.2B provides floor.
Bear Case
Incremental ROIC 3.3% <9.5% WACC risks value erosion on $1.55B CapEx; growth 7.8% lags peers (13.0% median); insider sales $9.8M at $81 avg vs $117 current signal caution; fee pressure in passive investing.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
AI platform Eliza scales to 500+ digital employees, unlocking capacity for cross-selling and validating moat durability amid market fears of...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Digital-asset custody expands (tokenized deposits, stablecoin fund), capturing 10% of FY2025 sales from new logos and accelerating organic f...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Recent FY2025 record $20.1B revenue and raised targets (pretax margin 38%, ROTCE 28%) coincide with Q4 buybacks and AI momentum, making anal...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion from tech disruption (e.g., blockchain disintermediating custody), impairing pricing power and compressing 37.8% margins toward...
Concern: Medium
Fee pressure in passive/ETFs erodes revenue, as 71.7% fee-based with 5Y CAGR 0.6%; multi-line cross-sell falters.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship exceptional (4/4 score): PSUs 70% 3Y avg ROTCE/30% relative TSR align with 26% achievement; board expertise in risk (Russak-Amin...
Recent Activity
2025-01-15SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.03%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) Document 4Q24 FINANCIALRESULTS BNY Reports Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Per Common Share of $1.54, or $1.72 as Adjusted (a) Full-Year 2024 Earnings Per Common Share of $5.80, or $6.03 as Adjusted (a) NEW YORK, January...
2024-07-12SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.24%BNY Mellon reports Q2 2024 earnings of $1.52 per share, up 16% year-over-year
2022-07-15SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.34%BNY Mellon reports Q2 2022 earnings of $1.03 per share, down 9% year-over-year
2022-01-19SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.85%BNY Mellon reports Q4 2021 earnings of $1.01 per share, up 28% year-over-year
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$137
Bear
$146
Base
$154
Bull
$117