BKNG
Booking Holdings Inc.$4253.58
Hold
Target $4895.00
Report: Mar 08, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Travel Services • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$4253.58+15.1%
Rec: HoldConviction: High
Entry Target
$3765.38
(11% below current)
Fair Value
$4895.00
(15% above current)
Stop Loss
$3765.45
(11% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$5,839.41
52 Week Low$3,765.45
Avg. 3 Month Volume400K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin100.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin34.2%
LTM EBIT Margin31.4%
LTM Operating Margin32.8%
LTM ROA18.7%
LTM ROE-93.6%
LTM ROIC89.4%
LTM ROCE70.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$133.4B
Enterprise Value (MM)$135.4B
Shares Outstanding32.09M
Total Debt (MM)$19.29B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$17.20B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$2.09B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth13.4%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR16.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR23.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR29.1%
Valuation
Street Target Price$5,928.95
LTM EV/Revenue5.0x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.0x
LTM EV/EBIT16.0x
LTM EV/EBITDA14.7x
LTM P/E24.7x
LTM EV/FCF14.9x
LTM P/FCF14.7x
LTM P/TB5.2x
LTM P/B-23.9x
Dividend Yield0.9%
Payout Ratio23.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $4253.58 versus fair value $4895.0 (15.1% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Full realization of $550 million in Transformation Program savings. Bear case centers on AI Disintermediation: The risk that generative AI platforms (Google, OpenAI) become the primary interface for travel, reducing Booking to a back-end fulfillment utility. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Half sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
The merchant-of-record shift (70% of bookings) creates a high-margin fintech layer that AI agents cannot easily replicate. The Genius loyalty program drives high-intent direct traffic, insulating the company from rising Google search costs. Transformation savings of $550 million provide a self-funding mechanism for the next leg of AI-driven growth.
Bear Case
Regulatory saturation in Europe (DMA and Spanish fines) could permanently impair take-rates. Marketing deleverage is a growing concern as performance marketing costs rise faster than organic growth. AI agents could disintermediate the discovery phase, turning OTAs into low-margin fulfillment utilities.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Full realization of $550 million in Transformation Program savings. This addresses market concerns about margin sustainability by proving th...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Acceleration of Connected Trip transactions to 30% of total bookings. This validates the variant perception that Booking is becoming a multi...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Booking Holdings is at a critical juncture as it implements a 25-for-1 stock split and navigates the first full year of its 'Agentic AI' rol...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
AI Disintermediation: The risk that generative AI platforms (Google, OpenAI) become the primary interface for travel, reducing Booking to a...
Concern: High
Regulatory Impairment: Aggressive EU enforcement of the Digital Markets Act (DMA) could force changes to parity clauses and data sharing, lo...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is strong but tempered by low 'skin in the game.' The board is exceptionally well-qualified, featuring former CFOs f...
Recent Activity
2026-02-24Analyst Target
+5.11%Firm: Morgan Stanley Analyst: Brian Nowak Price Target: $5,500.00 Price When Posted: $3,870.83 Implied Upside: +42.1%
2026-02-19SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.15%Booking Holdings reported Q4 2025 and full year 2025 results, highlighting strong growth and Transformation Program savings.
2026-02-03Analyst Target
-9.32%Firm: UBS Analyst: Stephen Ju Price Target: $6,608.00 Price When Posted: $5,122.25 Implied Upside: +29.0%
2024-08-02SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.17%Booking Holdings reported Q2 2024 financial results showing continued travel industry strength.
2024-02-23SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.15%Booking Holdings reported Q4 2023 and full year 2023 results, announcing initiation of quarterly dividend.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$3933
Bear
$5510
Base
$6685
Bull
$4254