BMY
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company$62.33
Unclear
Target $59.41
Report: Mar 07, 2026Healthcare • Drug Manufacturers - General • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$62.33-4.7%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$45.70
(27% below current)
Fair Value
$59.41
(5% below current)
Stop Loss
$39.35
(37% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$62.89
52 Week Low$42.52
Avg. 3 Month Volume13.38M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin71.1%
LTM EBITDA Margin27.7%
LTM EBIT Margin19.4%
LTM Operating Margin19.4%
LTM ROA7.5%
LTM ROE39.3%
LTM ROIC15.3%
LTM ROCE13.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$123.5B
Enterprise Value (MM)$158.4B
Shares Outstanding2.04B
Total Debt (MM)$45.11B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$10.21B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$34.90B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-0.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR1.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-9.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR5.2%
Valuation
Street Target Price$62.73
LTM EV/Revenue3.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.6x
LTM EV/EBIT17.0x
LTM EV/EBITDA11.9x
LTM P/E17.5x
LTM EV/FCF12.3x
LTM P/FCF9.6x
LTM P/TB2.5x
LTM P/B6.7x
Dividend Yield4.1%
Payout Ratio71.8%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $62.33 versus fair value $59.41 (-4.7% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Cobenfy TRx Acceleration Successful commercial launch of Cobenfy in schizophrenia, with prescriptions exceeding 100,000 in the first year, would validate the neuroscience pivot and provide a high-margin revenue stream to offset legacy er... Bear case centers on Accelerated Legacy Erosion Generic competition for Revlimid and Eliquis could exceed the projected 4 billion dollar annual decline, leading to a revenue contraction that the growth portfolio cannot offset. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
The growth portfolio, led by Reblozyl and Camzyos, continues to grow at 15-17% YoY, potentially reaching 55% of total sales by 2026. The 2 billion dollar productivity initiative could expand operating margins by 200 basis points as integration costs fade. Cobenfy represents a multi-billion dollar opportunity in schizophrenia with near 100% Medicare/Medicaid access.
Bear Case
The 2026-2030 patent cliff for Eliquis and Opdivo puts over 15 billion dollars in annual sales at risk. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) price negotiations are expected to force a 56% discount on Eliquis effective 2026. Recent M&A has resulted in a negative incremental ROIC of -436.9%, suggesting value destruction.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Cobenfy TRx Acceleration Successful commercial launch of Cobenfy in schizophrenia, with prescriptions exceeding 100,000 in the first year, w...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Milvexian Phase III Data Positive safety and efficacy data for Milvexian, particularly a clinically meaningful reduction in bleeding risk ve...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
The company is at a critical juncture as it enters 2026, the year IRA-mandated price negotiations for Eliquis take effect and the patent cli...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Accelerated Legacy Erosion Generic competition for Revlimid and Eliquis could exceed the projected 4 billion dollar annual decline, leading...
Concern: Medium
IRA Pricing Pressure The Inflation Reduction Act allows for direct government negotiation of drug prices, which is expected to result in a 5...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate for a Mature Compounder. The board is strong, featuring Lead Independent Director Theodore Samuels and former Agilen...
Recent Activity
2025-12-03Analyst Target
+5.62%Firm: Truist Financial Analyst: Srikripa Devarakonda Price Target: $65.00 Price When Posted: $50.98 Implied Upside: +27.5%
2025-10-30SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.09%Bristol Myers Squibb reports Q3 2025 financial results with continued growth and acquisition announcement
2025-07-31SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.81%Bristol Myers Squibb reports Q2 2025 financial results with revenue growth and updated guidance
2024-10-31SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.91%Bristol Myers Squibb reports Q3 2024 results with 8% revenue growth to $11.9B, FDA approval of Cobenfy for schizophrenia, and raised full-year guidance.
2024-07-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+11.44%Bristol Myers Squibb reports Q2 2024 revenue of $12.2B, up 9%, raises non-GAAP guidance, and achieves key regulatory approvals.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade