BROS logo

BROS

Dutch Bros Inc.
$63.52SellTarget $45.64Report: Jan 14, 2026Consumer CyclicalRestaurantsEarly-Stage Hypergrowth

Price History

Pelican View
Current$63.52-30.9%
Rec: SellConviction: Low
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$45.64
(28% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A

Key Metrics

Market Data
52 Week High$86.88
52 Week Low$47.16
Avg. 3 Month Volume3.97M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin25.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin16.0%
LTM EBIT Margin7.7%
LTM Operating Margin9.8%
LTM ROA2.8%
LTM ROE12.4%
LTM ROIC3.7%
LTM ROCE4.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$8.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$9.6B
Shares Outstanding127.06M
Total Debt (MM)$1.09B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$269.40M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$819.62M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.1x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth27.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR30.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR54.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$76.30
LTM EV/Revenue5.8x
LTM EV/Gross Profit22.6x
LTM EV/EBIT75.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA36.5x
LTM P/E109.6x
LTM EV/FCF175.7x
LTM P/FCF160.7x
LTM P/TB2.9x
LTM P/B12.9x
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout Ratio0.0%
About the Company

Dutch Bros Inc. is a high-growth operator and franchisor of drive-thru shops focused on serving high-quality, hand-crafted beverages with unparalleled speed and superior service. Founded in 1992 by brothers Dane and Travis Boersma in Grants Pass, Oregon, the company operates a mixed model where it encourages existing franchisees to develop within their operating areas while developing new regions with company-operated shops. The company's operations are centered around a drive-thru model that utilizes 'broistas' (employees) to provide a personalized customer experience, often utilizing a 'runner' system to greet customers and take orders via tablets before they reach the window.

Revenue Generation

Dutch Bros generates revenue through two primary streams: Company-operated shops and Franchising and other. Company-operated shop revenue is derived from the sale of beverages, food, and packaged goods through company-owned and operated shops. Franchising and other revenue consists primarily of royalties paid by franchise partners based on a percentage of their gross sales, initial franchise fees for new shop openings, and revenue from products sold to franchise partners. The company operates primarily in the United States, with shops located in 18 states as of December 31, 2024.

Investment Thesis
Executive SummaryDutch Bros is executing an aggressive unit expansion strategy that masks fundamental value destruction, as evidenced by a return on invested capital of 1.9% against a 15.0% cost of capital. The defining context for this investment is a massive lack of insider conviction, with Executive Chairman Travis Boersma and other insiders liquidating over $1.3 billion in stock over the last 12 months, including a $660 million exit in November 2025 alone. While revenue growth remains robust at 28.9%, the business model relies on continuous shareholder dilution and debt issuance to fund a capital-intensive land grab that fails to generate meaningful free cash flow.

Recent Activity

2025-10-27+5.20%
Firm: RBC Capital Analyst: Logan Reich Price Target: $85.00 Price When Posted: $56.91 Implied Upside: +49.4%
2025-08-07+21.60%
Dutch Bros reported Q2 2025 financial results with $415.8 million revenue, a 28% year-over-year increase.
2025-05-22+5.49%
Sumitro Ghosh will depart as President of Operations effective June 2, 2025, with the role being eliminated.

Valuation Table

MethodImplied ValueWeightWeighted Value
DCF$44.4547%$20.76
Comps$46.6953%$24.89
Total Weighted$45.64