BROS
Dutch Bros Inc.$53.20
Unclear
Target $57.68
Report: Feb 20, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Restaurants • Early-Stage HypergrowthSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$53.20+8.4%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$44.37
(17% below current)
Fair Value
$57.68
(8% above current)
Stop Loss
$42.56
(20% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional (12-24 Months)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$77.88
52 Week Low$44.58
Avg. 3 Month Volume4.88M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin25.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin16.0%
LTM EBIT Margin7.7%
LTM Operating Margin9.8%
LTM ROA2.8%
LTM ROE12.4%
LTM ROIC3.7%
LTM ROCE4.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$8.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$9.2B
Shares Outstanding127.06M
Total Debt (MM)$1.09B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$269.40M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$819.62M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.1x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth27.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR30.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR54.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$76.00
LTM EV/Revenue5.6x
LTM EV/Gross Profit21.6x
LTM EV/EBIT72.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA34.9x
LTM P/E104.4x
LTM EV/FCF168.1x
LTM P/FCF153.0x
LTM P/TB2.8x
LTM P/B12.2x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $53.2 versus fair value $57.68 (8.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Full-scale rollout of the new food program across the shop base. Bear case centers on Persistent commodity cost inflation, specifically in coffee beans. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Record average unit volumes of $2.1 million and 5.6% system-wide same-shop sales growth indicate strong consumer demand and brand resonance. The new food program pilot shows a 4% comp lift, providing a clear path to higher ticket sizes and improved shop-level economics.
Bear Case
Gross margins compressed 70 basis points to 25.9% as coffee-cost inflation outpaced pricing power. Massive insider selling of $1.32 billion and a 20% year-over-year increase in share count suggest a lack of alignment and persistent dilution for shareholders.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Full-scale rollout of the new food program across the shop base. This addresses market concerns regarding ticket size and transaction growth...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Critical
Achievement of positive free cash flow on a sustained basis. This would validate the transition from a capital-intensive 'diluter' strategy...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Dutch Bros is at a critical juncture as it attempts to accelerate shop openings to 181+ in 2026 while simultaneously rolling out its most si...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Persistent commodity cost inflation, specifically in coffee beans. Higher input costs directly impair gross margins, and if pricing power is...
Concern: Medium
Competitive displacement from legacy coffee and energy drink players. If Starbucks or other QSR giants successfully capture the 'energy' occ...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is characterized by a high-quality independent board but weak management alignment. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. Sta...
Recent Activity
2026-02-12SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.01%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 Dutch Bros Inc. Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results Achieves 29% Revenue Growth Year-Over-Year in the Fourth Quarter Delivers 7.7% System Same Shop Sales...
2025-10-27Analyst Target
+5.20%Firm: RBC Capital Analyst: Logan Reich Price Target: $85.00 Price When Posted: $56.91 Implied Upside: +49.4%
2025-08-07SEC Filing (8-K)
+21.60%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 Dutch Bros Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Achieves 28% Revenue Growth Year-Over-Year Delivers 6.1% Systemwide and 7.8% Company-Operated Same Shop Sales Growth...
2025-05-22SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.49%Excerpt: Source: Main Body +-----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | UNITED STATES | +-----------------------------------------------------------------------------+...
2025-05-08SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.83%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 Dutch Bros Inc. Reports First Quarter 2025 Financial Results Achieves 29% Year-Over-Year Revenue Growth in the First Quarter Delivers 4.7% System and 6.9% Company-Operated Same...
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$37
Bear
$77
Base
$114
Bull
$53