BSX
Boston Scientific Corporation$72.21
Buy
Target $105.28
Report: Mar 07, 2026Healthcare • Medical - Devices • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$72.21+45.8%
Rec: BuyConviction: High
Entry Target
$72.21
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$105.28
(46% above current)
Stop Loss
$67.50
(7% below current)
Position Size
Full
Time Horizon
Long-Term (3+ Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$109.50
52 Week Low$61.25
Avg. 3 Month Volume15.61M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin69.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin25.4%
LTM EBIT Margin18.6%
LTM Operating Margin18.0%
LTM ROA6.9%
LTM ROE12.6%
LTM ROIC16.9%
LTM ROCE10.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$93.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$102.6B
Shares Outstanding1.48B
Total Debt (MM)$11.44B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.97B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$9.47B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth19.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR16.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR23.0%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR63.6%
Valuation
Street Target Price$108.35
LTM EV/Revenue5.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit7.4x
LTM EV/EBIT27.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA20.1x
LTM P/E32.1x
LTM EV/FCF28.0x
LTM P/FCF25.5x
LTM P/TB5.1x
LTM P/B3.8x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $72.21 versus fair value $105.28 (45.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on CHAMPION Trial Results: Successful data demonstrating non-inferiority for stroke and superiority for bleeding will validate the WATCHMAN ecosystem and drive further adoption. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion in Electrophysiology: The entry of Medtronic (PulseSelect) and J&J (Varipulse) into the PFA market could lead to permanent market share loss and pricing pressure. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Full sizing and Long-Term (3+ Years) horizon.
Bull Case
1. Farapulse and WATCHMAN ecosystems drive sustained double-digit organic growth and margin expansion through favorable product mix. 2. Free cash flow generation is robust, surging 38% to $3.66B in 2025, supporting a disciplined M&A strategy. 3. High switching costs and procedural lock-in protect market share against new entrants.
Bear Case
1. Moat erosion in the EP market as Medtronic and J&J launch competing PFA systems. 2. Margin compression from a projected $100M tariff headwind in 2026. 3. Integration risk and technical debt associated with the aggressive $15B Penumbra acquisition.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
CHAMPION Trial Results: Successful data demonstrating non-inferiority for stroke and superiority for bleeding will validate the WATCHMAN eco...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Concomitant Procedure Adoption: Reaching the target of 25% of U.S. WATCHMAN procedures being performed concomitantly with AF ablations. This...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Boston Scientific is highly relevant at this moment due to the 17.6% price dislocation following the February 2026 earnings report, which ha...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat Erosion in Electrophysiology: The entry of Medtronic (PulseSelect) and J&J (Varipulse) into the PFA market could lead to permanent mark...
Concern: Low
Tariff Headwinds: A projected $100M hit from tariffs in 2026 could compress operating margins if not offset by pricing or cost efficiencies.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong but focused on reinvestment. The governance outcome tree suggests: 1. Status Quo: Continued execution of the M&A playb...
Recent Activity
2026-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
-17.59%Boston Scientific reports Q4 2025 and full year 2025 financial results with record performance
2024-04-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.68%Boston Scientific reports Q1 2024 financial results with strong growth
2022-07-27SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.19%Boston Scientific reports Q2 2022 financial results with solid performance
2022-05-07SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.27%Boston Scientific amends Change in Control Agreements for executive officers below CEO level
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$68
Bear
$116
Bull
$72