BX
Blackstone Inc.$110.40
Unclear
Target $112.32
Report: Mar 13, 2026Financial Services • Asset Management • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$110.40+1.7%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$86.40
(22% below current)
Fair Value
$112.32
(2% above current)
Stop Loss
$76.19
(31% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$190.09
52 Week Low$101.73
Avg. 3 Month Volume8.17M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin61.1%
LTM EBITDA Margin32.4%
LTM EBIT Margin32.2%
LTM Operating Margin50.2%
LTM ROA6.5%
LTM ROE36.2%
LTM ROIC8.6%
LTM ROCE10.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$85.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$95.8B
Shares Outstanding783.14M
Total Debt (MM)$13.31B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.85B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$10.45B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth9.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR19.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR21.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR17.9%
Valuation
Street Target Price$169.83
LTM EV/Revenue6.6x
LTM EV/Gross Profit10.8x
LTM EV/EBIT20.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA20.4x
LTM P/E28.3x
LTM EV/FCF21.1x
LTM P/FCF18.8x
LTM P/TB1.9x
LTM P/B9.8x
Dividend Yield4.1%
Payout Ratio122.2%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $110.4 versus fair value $112.32 (1.7% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Vanguard/Wellington Alliance Launch: The launch of new products targeting a broader wealth audience is expected in H1 2026. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion in Real Estate: Differing reporting methodologies for BREIT versus public peers could lead to a significant valuation correction if fundamental headwinds in commercial real estate persist. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
The AI-infrastructure platform is a generational growth engine with a prospective pipeline exceeding 100 billion. Record fundraising in credit, totaling 140 billion in 2025, demonstrates the firm's ability to capture institutional demand for durable return premiums.
Bear Case
Return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.5% currently sits well below the 13.2% weighted-average cost of capital, suggesting value erosion. High leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 153.6%, reduces the balance sheet cushion during potential market downturns.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Vanguard/Wellington Alliance Launch: The launch of new products targeting a broader wealth audience is expected in H1 2026. This addresses m...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Fee-Related Earnings Margin Expansion: The expiration of fee-holidays on major funds is expected to drive a material step-up in FRE margins....
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Blackstone is relevant for analysis now as it reaches a critical inflection point where AI-driven infrastructure deployment is beginning to...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat Erosion in Real Estate: Differing reporting methodologies for BREIT versus public peers could lead to a significant valuation correctio...
Concern: Low
Financial Risk from High Leverage: A debt-to-equity ratio of 153.6% combined with ROIC below the cost of capital creates a risk of value des...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong due to extreme alignment of interests. The CEO's 52.2% ownership and the use of carried interest with clawbacks ensure...
Recent Activity
2025-04-18SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.80%Blackstone reports first quarter 2025 results
2024-10-17SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.27%Blackstone reports third quarter 2024 results
2023-10-19SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.90%Blackstone reported Q3 2023 results with $920M net income and $1.2B distributable earnings
2023-01-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.57%Blackstone reported Q4 2022 and full year 2022 results with $743M Q4 net income and $2.99B full year net income
2022-05-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.53%Blackstone announces intention to offer euro-denominated senior notes
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade