BXP
BXP, Inc.$55.47
Sell
Target $35.25
Report: Mar 09, 2026Real Estate • REIT - Office • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$55.47-36.5%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$35.25
(36% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$79.33
52 Week Low$49.72
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.61M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin60.6%
LTM EBITDA Margin52.9%
LTM EBIT Margin26.7%
LTM Operating Margin29.1%
LTM ROA1.1%
LTM ROE5.3%
LTM ROIC2.2%
LTM ROCE3.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$8.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$24.0B
Shares Outstanding158.46M
Total Debt (MM)$17.36B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.56B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$15.80B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA8.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth2.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR3.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-3.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-31.4%
Valuation
Street Target Price$75.08
LTM EV/Revenue6.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit11.4x
LTM EV/EBIT25.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA13.0x
LTM P/E29.7x
LTM EV/FCF38.0x
LTM P/FCF13.0x
LTM P/TB0.3x
LTM P/B1.6x
Dividend Yield6.5%
Payout Ratio192.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $55.47 versus fair value $35.25 (-36.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Asset Monetization: Management is targeting 1.9 billion USD in net proceeds from asset sales by 2027 to address leverage and the upcoming maturity wall. Bear case centers on Interest Rate and Refinancing Risk: High interest rates increase the cost of servicing BXP's 17.4 billion USD in debt and complicate the refinancing of the 3 billion USD due in 2027. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Premier workplace flight-to-quality drives rents 50% above market; AI-driven demand accounts for 36% of tenant demand in San Francisco; 3.7 billion USD development pipeline targets high unlevered yields above 8%.
Bear Case
Elevated leverage with 8.6x Net Debt/EBITDA and 337.2% Debt/Equity; 3 billion USD debt maturity wall in 2027; recurring impairments of 85.8 million USD signal asset value erosion.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Asset Monetization: Management is targeting 1.9 billion USD in net proceeds from asset sales by 2027 to address leverage and the upcoming ma...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
343 Madison Recapitalization: Securing a 30-50% equity partner and 1 billion USD in construction financing for this trophy NYC development w...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
BXP is at a critical juncture as it faces a 3 billion USD debt maturity wall in 2027 while its core office occupancy has dipped to 86.7%, ma...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Interest Rate and Refinancing Risk: High interest rates increase the cost of servicing BXP's 17.4 billion USD in debt and complicate the ref...
Concern: Medium
Technological Obsolescence and Hybrid Work: A permanent shift toward hybrid work creates a ceiling on office occupancy, potentially renderin...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is rated as Adequate. The Board possesses deep real estate expertise, including Audit Chair Bruce W. Duncan (former CyrusOne CEO...
Recent Activity
2025-10-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.03%Boston Properties releases Q3 2025 supplemental operating and financial data
2025-07-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.68%Boston Properties releases Q2 2025 supplemental operating and financial data
2025-04-09Market Movement
+8.32%Market/Sector Move +8.32%
2025-01-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.93%BXP, Inc. releases Q4 2024 supplemental operating and financial data
2024-01-31SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
-5.00%State Street Corporation files Schedule 13G/A reporting 7.73% beneficial ownership of Boston Properties Inc.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade