BZH
Beazer Homes USA, Inc.$27.71
Sell
Target $18.05
Report: Feb 20, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Residential Construction • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$27.71-34.9%
Rec: SellConviction: Low
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$18.05
(35% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$28.33
52 Week Low$17.37
Avg. 3 Month Volume476K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin13.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin1.1%
LTM EBIT Margin0.3%
LTM Operating Margin0.1%
LTM ROA0.4%
LTM ROE0.8%
LTM ROIC0.2%
LTM ROCE0.3%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$567.7M
Enterprise Value (MM)$1.6B
Shares Outstanding28.93M
Total Debt (MM)$1.15B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$124.35M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.03B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA39.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-6.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-0.6%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-54.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-65.2%
Valuation
Street Target Price$41.00
LTM EV/Revenue0.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.3x
LTM EV/EBIT241.0x
LTM EV/EBITDA61.9x
LTM P/E57.6x
LTM EV/FCF-636.2x
LTM P/FCF-226.4x
LTM P/TB0.2x
LTM P/B0.5x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $27.71 versus fair value $18.05 (-34.9% expected return), and valuation confidence is partial. Debate: Bull case depends on Q2 FY2026 Earnings Release Management has guided for a sales pace of 1.8 homes per community, but current trends suggest a miss is likely, which would invalidate the 'normalization' narrative. Bear case centers on Lower-for-Longer Interest Rates A rapid decline in mortgage rates would restore affordability and allow Beazer to eliminate incentives, rapidly expanding margins back toward the 18.9% 5-year average. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Management successfully expands community count to 200+ by FY2027 while realizing $10,000 per home in cost savings; the 'Gatherings' 55+ brand captures high-margin cash buyers less sensitive to interest rates.
Bear Case
Operating margins remain near zero as 420-basis-point incentive drags persist; high leverage (47.2x net debt/EBITDA) leads to a credit event or massive dilution during a prolonged housing trough.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Q2 FY2026 Earnings Release Management has guided for a sales pace of 1.8 homes per community, but current trends suggest a miss is likely, w...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Failure to Execute $150M Asset Sales If the company cannot sell non-strategic land at book value, the buyback program will stall, removing t...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Beazer Homes is relevant for analysis now because the stock is trading at a 53% premium to our fair value estimate despite a 98% collapse in...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Lower-for-Longer Interest Rates A rapid decline in mortgage rates would restore affordability and allow Beazer to eliminate incentives, rapi...
Concern: High
Successful Cost-Reduction Execution If the $10,000 per home cost-saving program is fully realized and not offset by incentives, the bear cas...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is 'Adequate but Entrenched.' While the 5.33% CEO ownership and recent director purchases ($315,195) signal alignmen...
Recent Activity
2026-01-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.90%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 PRESS RELEASE Beazer Homes Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results ATLANTA, January 29, 2026 - Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (NYSE: BZH) ( www.beazer.com ) today announced its...
2025-11-25SEC Filing (SC 13D)
+7.18%Excerpt: SCHEDULE 13D 1 primary_doc.xml SCHEDULE 13D 0001239441 XXXXXXXX LIVE Common Stock, $0.
2025-08-13SEC Filing (SC 13G)
+5.95%Excerpt: SCHEDULE 13G 1 primary_doc.xml SCHEDULE 13G 0000814375 XXXXXXXX LIVE Common 06/30/2025 0000915840 BEAZER HOMES USA INC 07556Q881
2025-08-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.66%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 PRESS RELEASE Beazer Homes Reports Third Quarter Fiscal 2025 Results ATLANTA, July 31, 2025 - Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (NYSE: BZH) ( www.beazer.com ) today announced its financial...
2025-05-13SEC Filing (SC 13G)
+6.82%Excerpt: SCHEDULE 13G 1 primary_doc.xml SCHEDULE 13G 0000814375 XXXXXXXX LIVE Common 03/31/2025 0000915840 BEAZER HOMES USA INC 07556Q881
Valuation Table
7.5/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$0
Bear
$14
Base
$36
Bull
$28