CAG
Conagra Brands, Inc.$19.76
Unclear
Target $41.74
Report: Feb 24, 2026Consumer Defensive • Packaged Foods • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$19.76+111.2%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$32.11
(62% above current)
Fair Value
$41.74
(111% above current)
Stop Loss
$13.86
(30% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Strategic
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$27.68
52 Week Low$15.04
Avg. 3 Month Volume14.10M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin24.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin8.0%
LTM EBIT Margin4.5%
LTM Operating Margin2.9%
LTM ROA-0.5%
LTM ROE-1.1%
LTM ROIC4.3%
LTM ROCE3.1%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$7.5B
Enterprise Value (MM)$15.1B
Shares Outstanding478.37M
Total Debt (MM)$7.62B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$46.60M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$7.58B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA8.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-5.8%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-2.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-19.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$18.40
LTM EV/Revenue1.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.5x
LTM EV/EBIT29.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA16.9x
LTM P/E-76.7x
LTM EV/FCF16.5x
LTM P/FCF8.2x
LTM P/TB1.0x
LTM P/B0.9x
Dividend Yield8.9%
Payout Ratio-666.7%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $19.76 versus fair value $41.74 (111.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is insufficiently stable. Debate: Bull case depends on The completion of supply chain resiliency investments and normalization of inflation, which management expects to enable margin expansion in FY2027. Bear case centers on Persistent margin pressure and weak volume growth due to consumers trading down to private-label or lower-priced offerings, and limited pricing power despite cost inflation. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
The bull case centers on Conagra's stable cash flows from branded food products, strong asset base of 38 domestic manufacturing facilities, and ongoing supply chain investments. The company's strategy of investing margin to drive volume in frozen and snacks is yielding market share gains, while supply chain investments and debt reduction provide downside protection. The key catalyst is the completion of supply chain resiliency investments and normalization of inflation, which could enable margin expansion in FY2027 and unlock the company's intrinsic value.
Bear Case
The bear case focuses on persistent margin pressure, weak volume growth due to consumers trading down to private-label or lower-priced offerings, and limited pricing power despite cost inflation. The expected volume recovery in the second half of fiscal year 2026 is viewed by some as primarily driven by easy comparisons from prior supply chain disruptions rather than a resurgence of organic consumer demand. The company's high leverage (94.2% debt/equity) and negative tangible book value (-$3.84 billion) raise concerns about asset quality and financial flexibility.
Key Catalysts
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Critical
The completion of supply chain resiliency investments and normalization of inflation, which management expects to enable margin expansion in...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: High
The successful implementation of management's 'predictive maintenance' program, which drives higher-than-expected asset utilization and redu...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Conagra Brands is relevant for analysis at this moment due to its recent Q1 FY2026 results, which showed EPS of $0.39, beating estimates by...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Persistent margin pressure and weak volume growth due to consumers trading down to private-label or lower-priced offerings, and limited pric...
Concern: Medium
High leverage (94.2% debt/equity) and negative tangible book value (-$3.84 billion) raise concerns about asset quality and financial flexibi...
Concern: Medium
Conagra Brands' management team has delivered an adequate performance, with a focus on debt reduction and dividends over growth investment....
Recent Activity
2025-10-01SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.41%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Exhibit 99.1 News Release For more information, please contact: MEDIA: Mike Cummins 312-549-5257 Michael. Cummins@conagra.com INVESTORS: Matthew Neisius 312-549-5002 IR@conagra.com F O R...
2024-10-02SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.07%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Exhibit 99.1 News Release For more information, please contact: MEDIA: Mike Cummins 312-549-5257 Michael. Cummins@conagra.com INVESTORS: Melissa Napier 312-549-5738 IR@conagra.com F O R I M...
2024-04-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.44%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) ex_620435.htm Exhibit 99.1 News Release For more information, please contact: MEDIA: Mike Cummins 312-549-5257 Michael. Cummins@conagra.com INVESTORS: Melissa Napier 312-549-5738 IR@conagra.com F O R I...
2022-07-14SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.25%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) ex_339830.htm Exhibit 99.1 News Release For more information, please contact: MEDIA: Mike Cummins 312-549-5257 Michael. Cummins@conagra.com INVESTORS: Melissa Napier 312-549-5738 IR@conagra.com F O R I...
2021-07-13SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.43%Excerpt: Source: Main Body UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, DC 20549 FORM 8-K CURRENT REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event...
Valuation Table
5.2/10Directional
Scenario Range
$4
Bear
$400
Base
$20