CAH
Cardinal Health, Inc.$216.02
Buy
Target $382.90
Report: Mar 07, 2026Healthcare • Medical - Distribution • Turnaround CandidateSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$216.02+77.3%
Rec: BuyConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$216.02
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$382.90
(77% above current)
Stop Loss
$120.72
(44% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$233.60
52 Week Low$120.72
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.78M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin3.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin1.4%
LTM EBIT Margin1.1%
LTM Operating Margin1.1%
LTM ROA3.1%
LTM ROE-57.8%
LTM ROIC37.4%
LTM ROCE18.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$49.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$56.0B
Shares Outstanding236.00M
Total Debt (MM)$9.03B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.78B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$6.25B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth10.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR8.2%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR76.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$252.33
LTM EV/Revenue0.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit6.2x
LTM EV/EBIT21.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA16.2x
LTM P/E29.9x
LTM EV/FCF10.1x
LTM P/FCF9.0x
LTM P/TB1.1x
LTM P/B-17.2x
Dividend Yield1.0%
Payout Ratio29.2%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $216.02 versus fair value $382.9 (77.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is partial. Debate: Bull case depends on Full integration of Solaris Health and ION acquisitions. Bear case centers on Existential liquidity and solvency risk. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Half sizing and Transitional horizon.
Bull Case
The specialty MSO platform (Solaris, ION) accelerates margin expansion toward 3.2%; nuclear medicine growth exceeds 30% due to theranostics demand; and the $750M share repurchase program provides significant EPS accretion on a depressed share count.
Bear Case
Persistent negative tangible equity triggers a covenant breach; the loss of additional large customers like CVS (30% of revenue) cripples the distribution scale; and $300M in annual tariff costs on China-sourced medical products cannot be fully passed through to customers.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Full integration of Solaris Health and ION acquisitions. This addresses market concerns regarding the revenue loss from OptumRx by proving t...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Completion of distribution center automation projects. Automating 11 distribution centers for At-Home Solutions will drive structural margin...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Cardinal Health is highly relevant now as it has just reported two consecutive quarters of significant beat-and-raise results, with the stoc...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Existential liquidity and solvency risk. The company's negative tangible equity of -$14.9B and rising net debt ($6.25B) create a 'race again...
Concern: High
Customer concentration risk with CVS Health. CVS represents approximately 30% of total revenue; the loss of this contract would be catastrop...
Concern: Medium
The governance outcome tree suggests three paths: 1. Status Quo, where the specialty pivot continues to drive 20-22% pharma profit growth; 2...
Recent Activity
2026-02-05SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.83%Cardinal Health reports strong Q2 FY26 results with 19% revenue growth and raises full-year guidance.
2025-10-30SEC Filing (8-K)
+15.43%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Cardinal Health Reports First Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Results and Raises Outlook • Revenue increased 22% to $64 billion • GAAP 1 operating earnings increased 18% to $668...
2025-08-12SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.21%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Cardinal Health Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Results and Raises Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance • Fourth quarter revenue was relatively flat at $60.2 billion; revenue...
2024-11-01SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.01%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Cardinal Health Reports First Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Results and Raises Fiscal Year 2025 Outlook • Revenue decreased 4% to $52.3 billion; revenue increased 15% excluding the...
2023-11-03SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.86%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Cardinal Health Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2024 Results and Raises Fiscal 2024 Outlook • Revenue increased 10% to $54.8 billion • GAAP 1 operating loss was $14 million and...
Valuation Table
7.1/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$167
Bear
$240
Base
$623
Bull
$216