CARR
Carrier Global Corporation$61.17
Unclear
Target $57.83
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Construction • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$61.17-5.5%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$44.48
(27% below current)
Fair Value
$57.83
(5% below current)
Stop Loss
$40.53
(34% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term (3+ Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$81.09
52 Week Low$50.24
Avg. 3 Month Volume7.43M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin25.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin15.5%
LTM EBIT Margin9.6%
LTM Operating Margin8.8%
LTM ROA4.0%
LTM ROE10.4%
LTM ROIC11.3%
LTM ROCE7.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$47.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$57.8B
Shares Outstanding839.20M
Total Debt (MM)$12.25B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.55B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$10.70B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-9.4%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR2.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-11.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-25.5%
Valuation
Street Target Price$67.88
LTM EV/Revenue2.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit10.3x
LTM EV/EBIT27.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA17.2x
LTM P/E31.7x
LTM EV/FCF27.2x
LTM P/FCF22.2x
LTM P/TB3.1x
LTM P/B3.4x
Dividend Yield1.2%
Payout Ratio39.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $61.17 versus fair value $57.83 (-5.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Data Center Revenue Milestone: Management achieving the $1.5B revenue target for data center cooling in FY2026. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion and Pricing Power Loss: The primary risk is a permanent impairment of the moat where Carrier is forced to compete on price rather than innovation. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Data center cooling revenue is on track to double to $1.5B by 2026, supported by a 5x increase in Q4 2025 orders. Aggressive share repurchases ($6.8B since 2021) have reduced share count by 3.5% annually, providing a floor for EPS.
Bear Case
The core residential HVAC market is in structural stagnation, with North American volumes down 40% from peak levels. Carrier's gross margin trails peers by 1,050 basis points, indicating a lack of pricing power and an eroding moat.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Data Center Revenue Milestone: Management achieving the $1.5B revenue target for data center cooling in FY2026. This would validate the 'gro...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Residential Inventory Normalization: A return to positive organic growth in the Climate Solutions Americas segment. This would signal the en...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Carrier is at a critical juncture as it completes its portfolio transformation; the stock is currently treading water as the market weighs t...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat Erosion and Pricing Power Loss: The primary risk is a permanent impairment of the moat where Carrier is forced to compete on price rath...
Concern: Medium
Leverage and Interest Coverage: Net debt has risen to $10.7B following the Viessmann deal, while interest coverage has fallen from 19x to 5....
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is competent but lacks the 'skin in the game' required for high conviction. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. Status Quo:...
Recent Activity
2025-07-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.61%Carrier Global Corporation reported strong second quarter 2025 results with 3% net sales growth and reaffirmed full-year guidance
2025-05-01SEC Filing (8-K)
+11.61%Carrier Global Corporation reported strong first quarter 2025 results with 2% organic sales growth and increased full year guidance.
2024-10-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.82%Carrier Global Corporation reported strong third quarter 2024 results with 21% net sales growth and updated full-year guidance
2024-04-25SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.20%Carrier Global Corporation reported strong first quarter 2024 results with 17% sales growth and reaffirmed full year guidance.
2023-12-14SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.39%Carrier Global Corporation entered into a Stock Purchase Agreement to sell its security business, Global Access Solutions, to Honeywell International Inc. for $4.95 billion.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$2
Base
$83
Bull
$61