CBRE
CBRE Group, Inc.$141.19
Sell
Target $121.93
Report: Mar 10, 2026Real Estate • Real Estate - Services • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$141.19-13.6%
Rec: SellConviction: Low
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$121.93
(14% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$174.27
52 Week Low$108.45
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.25M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin18.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin6.5%
LTM EBIT Margin4.2%
LTM Operating Margin3.2%
LTM ROA4.1%
LTM ROE13.6%
LTM ROIC10.7%
LTM ROCE10.1%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$40.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$48.0B
Shares Outstanding296.86M
Total Debt (MM)$9.99B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.01B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$7.98B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth13.4%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR9.6%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR4.1%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-3.9%
Valuation
Street Target Price$185.67
LTM EV/Revenue1.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit6.3x
LTM EV/EBIT28.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA18.3x
LTM P/E34.6x
LTM EV/FCF59.7x
LTM P/FCF49.8x
LTM P/TB1.9x
LTM P/B4.5x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $141.19 versus fair value $121.93 (-13.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Data Center Revenue Scaling: Management expects data center revenue to reach $2B in 2026, growing 20% annually. Bear case centers on Leverage and Refinancing Risk: Net leverage has reached 5.8x, and 42% of the company's $10B debt matures within the next 12 months. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The pivot to resilient businesses (70% of revenue) provides a stable earnings floor; the data center platform is a secular winner targeting $2B in revenue; AI-driven automation will save 25% of research costs by 2026.
Bear Case
Net leverage of 5.8x creates significant refinancing risk in a high-rate environment; debt-funded buybacks have resulted in a negative tangible book value; ROIC of 7.3% indicates value destruction relative to the 10.2% cost of capital.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Data Center Revenue Scaling: Management expects data center revenue to reach $2B in 2026, growing 20% annually. This addresses market concer...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
AI-Driven Cost Savings: Implementation of the 'Nexus AI' platform is expected to save 25% of research costs by the end of 2026. This would d...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Our differentiated view is that the market is overly focused on short-term revenue growth while underappreciating the durability of the moat...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Leverage and Refinancing Risk: Net leverage has reached 5.8x, and 42% of the company's $10B debt matures within the next 12 months. A sustai...
Concern: Medium
Moat Erosion in Facilities Management: Low-cost competitors or technological disruption could permanently impair CBRE's pricing power in its...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is currently a 'Maintenance' posture. While the board is independent and includes capital allocation experts like Shira Goodman...
Recent Activity
2026-02-12SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.84%CBRE Group reports Q4 and full year 2025 financial results with double-digit growth
2025-07-29SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.84%CBRE Group, Inc. reports Q2 2025 financial results with 71% GAAP EPS growth and 47% Core EPS growth.
2025-01-15SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.12%CBRE Group announces acquisition of Industrious and creation of new Building Operations & Experience segment
2024-10-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.43%CBRE Group, Inc. reported third-quarter 2024 financial results with GAAP EPS up 20% to $0.73 and Core EPS up 67% to $1.20.
2024-07-25SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.29%CBRE Group reported Q2 2024 financial results with revenue up 9% and Core EPS down 2% to $0.81.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$107
Bear
$188
Bull
$141