CEG
Constellation Energy Corporation$332.07
Sell
Target $225.96
Report: Mar 09, 2026Utilities • Renewable Utilities • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$332.07-32.0%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$225.96
(32% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$412.70
52 Week Low$161.35
Avg. 3 Month Volume3.70M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin15.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin25.9%
LTM EBIT Margin15.7%
LTM Operating Margin12.1%
LTM ROA4.2%
LTM ROE16.7%
LTM ROIC7.6%
LTM ROCE8.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$101.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$106.4B
Shares Outstanding313.00M
Total Debt (MM)$8.99B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$3.72B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$5.27B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth8.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR1.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR45.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$418.80
LTM EV/Revenue4.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit26.1x
LTM EV/EBIT26.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA16.1x
LTM P/E43.6x
LTM EV/FCF87.2x
LTM P/FCF82.9x
LTM P/TB1.8x
LTM P/B7.0x
Dividend Yield0.6%
Payout Ratio21.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $332.07 versus fair value $225.96 (-32.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Full integration of Calpine Corporation and realization of 20% EPS accretion. Bear case centers on Lower-for-longer margin compression driven by fuel price volatility and the expiration of state-level zero-emission credits (ZECs). Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Nuclear scarcity will drive long-term PPA pricing to 115 dollars per MWh, far exceeding historical norms. The Calpine acquisition will be 20% accretive to EPS by 2026, providing massive dispatchable capacity for the AI grid.
Bear Case
Gross margins have collapsed from 22.9% to 15.9% due to rising fuel costs and fading tax credits. The stock's 31x P/E multiple is unsustainable for a utility with 12% operating margins and 11.6% capex-to-revenue intensity.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Full integration of Calpine Corporation and realization of 20% EPS accretion. This will validate management's M&A strategy and provide the c...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Critical
NRC approval and commencement of the 835 MW Crane Clean Energy Center (Three Mile Island) restart. This is the cornerstone of the 'Nuclear S...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Constellation is at a critical juncture following the completion of the Calpine acquisition and the reporting of a 38% decline in annual EPS...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Lower-for-longer margin compression driven by fuel price volatility and the expiration of state-level zero-emission credits (ZECs).
Concern: Medium
Geopolitical disruption of the nuclear fuel supply chain, specifically reliance on Russian uranium enrichment.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is generally strong, but the lack of recent insider buying is a concern. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. Status Quo: Ma...
Recent Activity
2026-02-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.41%Constellation Energy reported Q4 2025 and full-year 2025 results, completed Calpine acquisition, and announced dividend increase.
2026-01-16SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.82%Constellation to acquire Calpine in $16.4 billion stock and cash transaction
2025-12-17SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.74%Constellation reports PJM capacity auction results for 2027-2028
2025-12-12Press Release
-7.03%Constellation Wins Platts Global Energy Award For Crane Clean Energy Center Restart
2025-11-19SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.34%Constellation secures $1 billion DOE loan for Crane Clean Energy Center restart
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade