CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.$110.78
Hold
Target $122.91
Report: Mar 08, 2026Basic Materials • Agricultural Inputs • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$110.78+10.9%
Rec: HoldConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$94.55
(15% below current)
Fair Value
$122.91
(11% above current)
Stop Loss
$67.34
(39% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$141.96
52 Week Low$67.34
Avg. 3 Month Volume4.09M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin38.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin41.6%
LTM EBIT Margin29.0%
LTM Operating Margin32.3%
LTM ROA10.5%
LTM ROE30.0%
LTM ROIC17.8%
LTM ROCE16.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$20.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$21.6B
Shares Outstanding155.80M
Total Debt (MM)$3.64B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.98B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.65B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth19.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-14.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-19.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-18.1%
Valuation
Street Target Price$91.71
LTM EV/Revenue3.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit7.9x
LTM EV/EBIT10.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA7.3x
LTM P/E13.7x
LTM EV/FCF11.9x
LTM P/FCF11.0x
LTM P/TB1.8x
LTM P/B4.1x
Dividend Yield1.5%
Payout Ratio22.2%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $110.78 versus fair value $122.91 (10.9% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Blue Point JV Milestones Successful commencement of civil work in Q2 2026 will validate the project's $3.7 billion cost containment and timeline, addressing the primary analyst concern regarding capital overruns. Bear case centers on DOJ Antitrust Probe and Litigation A negative outcome in the price-fixing investigation could lead to massive fines, treble damages, and structural changes to the industry's pricing model, impairing CF's long-term margin profile. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Starter sizing and Transitional horizon.
Bull Case
Structural low-cost gas advantage drives 38.5% gross margins; Aggressive share repurchases have retired 27.5% of the float since 2021; Blue Point JV provides a clear path to $3.0 billion+ mid-cycle EBITDA.
Bear Case
DOJ antitrust probe introduces significant regulatory and legal tail risk; Yazoo City rebuild delays could impair 2026 cash flows; Heavy insider selling ($50.5 million in 12 months) suggests management sees limited near-term upside.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Blue Point JV Milestones Successful commencement of civil work in Q2 2026 will validate the project's $3.7 billion cost containment and time...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Yazoo City Insurance Proceeds Receipt of business interruption insurance proceeds will offset the EBITDA loss from the 2026 production dip,...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
CF Industries is at a critical juncture as it navigates the immediate aftermath of a leadership reset and a DOJ probe, while simultaneously...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
DOJ Antitrust Probe and Litigation A negative outcome in the price-fixing investigation could lead to massive fines, treble damages, and str...
Concern: Medium
Natural Gas Price Volatility As natural gas accounts for 70% of production costs, a 'lower-for-longer' gas environment in Europe or a spike...
Concern: Medium
The governance environment is currently in a 'Transition' state. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. Status Quo (Bohn executes Blue Poi...
Recent Activity
2025-08-07SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
-7.80%FMR LLC and Abigail P. Johnson report 5.3 million shares of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. representing 3.3% ownership
2024-08-08SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.50%CF Industries reports strong first half 2024 financial results with $1.2B adjusted EBITDA
2024-05-02SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.26%CF Industries reported Q1 2024 financial results with net earnings of $194 million and adjusted EBITDA of $459 million
2022-07-14Analyst Target
-5.72%Firm: RBC Capital Price Target: $110.00 Price When Posted: $85.54 Implied Upside: +28.6%
2022-06-14Analyst Target
+7.94%Firm: Maxim Group Analyst: Jason McCarthy Price Target: $108.23 Price When Posted: $31.20 Implied Upside: +246.9%
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$46
Bear
$3
Base
$261
Bull
$111