CHD
Church & Dwight Co., Inc.$100.70
Sell
Target $86.65
Report: Mar 13, 2026Consumer Defensive • Household & Personal Products • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$100.70-14.0%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$86.65
(14% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$113.91
52 Week Low$81.33
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.35M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin44.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin20.9%
LTM EBIT Margin17.0%
LTM Operating Margin17.4%
LTM ROA8.2%
LTM ROE17.2%
LTM ROIC30.9%
LTM ROCE13.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$22.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$23.9B
Shares Outstanding238.50M
Total Debt (MM)$2.21B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$409.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.80B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.4x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth1.6%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR4.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR16.0%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR21.4%
Valuation
Street Target Price$98.40
LTM EV/Revenue3.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit8.6x
LTM EV/EBIT22.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA18.4x
LTM P/E30.0x
LTM EV/FCF21.9x
LTM P/FCF20.2x
LTM P/TB8.0x
LTM P/B5.5x
Dividend Yield1.3%
Payout Ratio39.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $100.7 versus fair value $86.65 (-14.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Organic Growth Misses: If organic growth continues to track below the 3% Evergreen target, the market will be forced to re-rate the P/E multiple toward the peer median of 20x. Bear case centers on Structural Growth Deceleration: The risk that the U.S. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The 'Evergreen' model will successfully deliver 3% organic sales and 8% EPS growth through the scaling of ARM & HAMMER to $3 billion and international expansion of TheraBreath and Hero. The company's defensive nature and 17.6% FCF margins provide a safe haven in a volatile macro environment.
Bear Case
Revenue growth has structurally decelerated to 1.6%, and the 32.3x P/E multiple is unsustainable for a low-single-digit grower. Negative incremental ROIC of -99.6% indicates that recent M&A and CapEx are failing to generate meaningful returns, and insider selling signals a lack of confidence at current prices.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Organic Growth Misses: If organic growth continues to track below the 3% Evergreen target, the market will be forced to re-rate the P/E mult...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Gross Margin Compression: Re-acceleration of commodity costs or increased promotional spending to defend market share could drive gross marg...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Church & Dwight is at a critical juncture following its 2025 CEO transition and the divestiture of its VMS business; the next several quarte...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Structural Growth Deceleration: The risk that the U.S. consumer market is saturated and international expansion cannot scale fast enough to...
Concern: High
Valuation De-rating: The risk that the market stops paying a 32x P/E for a business growing at 1-2%.
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is 'Adequate but Unaligned.' While the board is highly independent and features high-quality directors like Robert S...
Recent Activity
2025-10-31SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.20%Church & Dwight reports Q3 2025 results with sales growth and raises full-year outlook
2025-05-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.01%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) EX-99.1 Church & Dwight Co., Inc. News Release Contact: Lee Mc Chesney Chief Financial Officer 609-806-1200 CHURCH & DWIGHT REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2025 RESULTS Q1 EPS EXCEEDS OUTLOOK UPDATES FULL YEAR OUTLOOK 2025 First...
2023-11-03SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.61%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) EX-99.1 Church & Dwight Co., Inc. News Release Contact: Rick Dierker Chief Financial Officer 609-806-1200 CHURCH & DWIGHT REPORTS Q3 2023 RESULTS Q3 NET SALES, GROSS MARGIN AND EPS EXCEED OUTLOOK FULL YEAR NET SALES...
2023-04-27SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.76%Excerpt: (EX-99) EX-99 Church & Dwight Co., Inc. News Release Contact: Rick Dierker Chief Financial Officer 609-806-1200 CHURCH & DWIGHT REPORTS Q1 2023 RESULTS Q1 NET SALES, EPS & CASHFLOW EXCEED OUTLOOK RAISES FULL YEAR SALES, GROSS...
2022-07-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.56%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) EX-99.1 Church & Dwight Co., Inc. News Release Contact: Rick Dierker Chief Financial Officer 609-806-1200 CHURCH & DWIGHT REPORTS Q2 RESULTS $0.76 EPS EXCEEDS OUTLOOK REVISES FULL YEAR 2022 EPS to FLAT: REFLECTS...
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$59
Bear
$84
Base
$103
Bull
$101