CHRW
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.$193.32
Sell
Target $104.60
Report: Mar 08, 2026Industrials • Integrated Freight & Logistics • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$193.32-45.9%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$104.60
(46% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$203.34
52 Week Low$84.68
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.25M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin16.8%
LTM EBITDA Margin5.5%
LTM EBIT Margin4.9%
LTM Operating Margin4.9%
LTM ROA11.3%
LTM ROE32.5%
LTM ROIC25.4%
LTM ROCE25.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$19.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$21.0B
Shares Outstanding119.88M
Total Debt (MM)$1.43B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$160.87M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.27B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.4x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-8.4%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-13.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-12.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-13.2%
Valuation
Street Target Price$185.47
LTM EV/Revenue1.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit7.7x
LTM EV/EBIT26.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA23.4x
LTM P/E33.6x
LTM EV/FCF24.8x
LTM P/FCF23.3x
LTM P/TB5.5x
LTM P/B10.7x
Dividend Yield1.5%
Payout Ratio51.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $193.32 versus fair value $104.6 (-45.9% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Normalization of Ocean Freight Rates. Bear case centers on Lower-for-longer cyclical downturn. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The Lean AI model creates a permanent cost advantage by decoupling labor from volume, allowing for 35% NAST operating margins in a mid-cycle environment. Market share gains in truckload and LTL (+1% NAST volume vs. -7.6% Cass index) prove the platform's superior value proposition.
Bear Case
Revenue is contracting faster than peers (-8.4% vs. +2.7% median), indicating a loss of pricing power or structural market share. Valuation is at a multi-decade peak (37.8x P/E) while insiders have sold $21.9M in stock, signaling a lack of conviction in the current price.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Normalization of Ocean Freight Rates. Global Forwarding AGP fell 13% in Q4 2025; a continued decline will expose the fragility of the margin...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Deceleration of Productivity Gains. The company has already achieved >40% shipments-per-person gains; as these mature, the lack of top-line...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
C.H. Robinson is relevant for analysis now because it is trading at a multi-year high despite a fundamental revenue contraction, creating a...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Lower-for-longer cyclical downturn. If freight volumes remain stagnant or decline further, the company's fixed-cost reductions will be insuf...
Concern: Medium
Eroding Moat and Competitive Pressure. Digital-native entrants and better-capitalized peers (XPO, JBHT) are advancing AI capabilities, poten...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is currently in a transition phase following the 2022 cooperation agreement with Ancora Advisors. The Governance Outcome Tree su...
Recent Activity
2026-01-29SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.12%C.H. Robinson reported 2025 Q4 and full-year results showing continued strong performance with market share gains and margin expansion despite significant market headwinds.
2025-10-30SEC Filing (8-K)
+19.71%C.H. Robinson reported 2025 Q3 results showing strong outperformance with market share gains and margin expansion despite challenging freight environment.
2025-07-31SEC Filing (8-K)
+18.10%C.H. Robinson reported Q2 2025 results with 21.2% increase in income from operations and 31.1% adjusted operating margin.
2025-01-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.94%C.H. Robinson reported 2024 Q4 results with significant year-over-year improvement in profitability and operating margins.
2024-10-31SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.02%C.H. Robinson reported Q3 2024 results with 58.7% increase in income from operations and 24.5% adjusted operating margin.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$72
Bear
$109
Base
$131
Bull
$193