CHTR
Charter Communications, Inc.$231.54
Unclear
Target $317.12
Report: Feb 21, 2026Communication Services • Telecommunications Services • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$231.54+37.0%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$243.94
(5% above current)
Fair Value
$317.12
(37% above current)
Stop Loss
$180.38
(22% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Strategic
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$437.06
52 Week Low$180.38
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.95M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin100.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin37.3%
LTM EBIT Margin21.4%
LTM Operating Margin23.6%
LTM ROA3.3%
LTM ROE31.2%
LTM ROIC5.8%
LTM ROCE8.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$27.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$123.1B
Shares Outstanding127.15M
Total Debt (MM)$96.20B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$477.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$95.73B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA4.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-0.6%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR0.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR0.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR5.6%
Valuation
Street Target Price$307.67
LTM EV/Revenue2.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit2.2x
LTM EV/EBIT10.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA6.0x
LTM P/E5.5x
LTM EV/FCF24.6x
LTM P/FCF5.5x
LTM P/TB0.2x
LTM P/B1.7x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $231.54 versus fair value $317.12 (37.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is insufficiently stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Completion of the Network Evolution Initiative and CapEx Step-Down. Bear case centers on Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) and Fiber Overbuild Penetration. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Mobile line growth (428k adds in Q4 2025) provides a high-margin revenue stream that increases broadband stickiness; CapEx is projected to drop from $11.4 billion in 2026 to under $8 billion by 2028, unlocking massive free cash flow; the Cox acquisition offers significant procurement synergies and footprint expansion.
Bear Case
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) and fiber overbuilders are permanently eroding the broadband subscriber base, evidenced by 119,000 net losses in FY2025; net leverage of 4.5x and a negative tangible book value of -$14.1 billion leave no margin for error in a recession; ROIC of 2.4% is significantly below the 10.5% WACC, indicating current reinvestment is value-destructive.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Completion of the Network Evolution Initiative and CapEx Step-Down. Management has guided that CapEx will peak at $11.4 billion in 2026 and...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: High
Closing of the Cox Communications Acquisition. This transaction adds 70 million households and provides procurement synergies that managemen...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Charter is at a critical juncture as it enters the final peak year of its capital-intensive network upgrade while simultaneously managing th...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) and Fiber Overbuild Penetration. Competitors like T-Mobile and Verizon are capturing price-sensitive broadband c...
Concern: Medium
Interest Rate Sensitivity and Debt Refinancing. With $96.2 billion in debt and a weighted average cost of 5.2%, any sustained increase in ra...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is currently in a 'Transition' phase. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. Status Quo: The company continues its $11.4 billi...
Recent Activity
2026-01-30SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+7.62%Vanguard Group amends Schedule 13G to report increased beneficial ownership of Charter Communications shares.
2026-01-27Analyst Target
-5.57%Firm: BNP Paribas Analyst: Sam McHugh Price Target: $160.00 Price When Posted: $184.89 Implied Downside: -13.5%
2025-07-29Press Release
-5.90%Introducing Spectrum Reach Architect: Ai-Powered Insights For Advertisers
2025-07-25SEC Filing (8-K)
-18.49%Charter Communications reported Q2 2025 financial results with revenue growth of 0.6% year-over-year to $13.8 billion.
2025-04-25SEC Filing (8-K)
+11.43%Charter Communications reported Q1 2025 financial results with revenue growth of 0.4% year-over-year to $13.7 billion.
Valuation Table
4.8/10Directional
Scenario Range
$0
Bear
$127
Base
$420
Bull
$232