CI
Cigna Corporation$281.27
Buy
Target $406.56
Report: Mar 08, 2026Healthcare • Medical - Healthcare Plans • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$281.27+44.5%
Rec: BuyConviction: High
Entry Target
$281.27
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$406.56
(45% above current)
Stop Loss
$239.51
(15% below current)
Position Size
Full
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$350.00
52 Week Low$239.51
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.76M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin9.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin4.2%
LTM EBIT Margin3.2%
LTM Operating Margin3.3%
LTM ROA3.9%
LTM ROE14.5%
LTM ROIC17.8%
LTM ROCE9.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$70.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$94.1B
Shares Outstanding263.53M
Total Debt (MM)$31.46B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$7.68B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$23.79B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth11.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR15.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-2.2%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR1.0%
Valuation
Street Target Price$325.83
LTM EV/Revenue0.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit3.7x
LTM EV/EBIT10.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA8.1x
LTM P/E11.8x
LTM EV/FCF11.2x
LTM P/FCF8.4x
LTM P/TB0.8x
LTM P/B1.7x
Dividend Yield2.3%
Payout Ratio27.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $281.27 versus fair value $406.56 (44.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Adoption of the Rebate-Free PBM Model Management targets >50% client adoption by 2028. Bear case centers on Regulatory PBM Reform (FTC/CAA) The primary risk is moat erosion. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Full sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
Evernorth's specialty pharmacy is a high-growth engine, with 14% revenue growth and a $100 billion biosimilar tailwind through 2030. Aggressive capital allocation has reduced the share count by 23.2% over the last five years, driving massive EPS accretion even during margin transitions.
Bear Case
Regulatory reset and FTC-mandated PBM delinking could permanently compress margins in the Pharmacy Benefit Services segment. High intangible asset exposure ($73.5 billion) and negative tangible book value create a low valuation floor if the moat is impaired.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Adoption of the Rebate-Free PBM Model Management targets >50% client adoption by 2028. Successful early adoption in 2026 will validate the n...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Biosimilar Adoption Acceleration As Humira and Stelara biosimilars gain market share, Evernorth's specialty pharmacy margins should expand....
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Execution of $10 Billion Buyback The massive share repurchase program will reduce the float and drive double-digit EPS growth regardless of...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Regulatory PBM Reform (FTC/CAA) The primary risk is moat erosion. Legislative changes could permanently impair pricing power by banning spre...
Concern: Low
Leadership Transition Execution The departure of a long-time, successful CEO (Cordani) could lead to strategic drift or operational missteps...
Concern: Medium
The Governance Outcome Tree suggests a high probability of stability: 1. Status Quo (80%): Evanko executes the rebate-free transition and co...
Recent Activity
2025-10-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-17.39%The Cigna Group reported strong third quarter 2025 results with 10% revenue growth and reaffirmed 2025 adjusted EPS outlook.
2025-07-31SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.23%The Cigna Group reported strong second quarter 2025 results with 11% revenue growth and reaffirmed 2025 adjusted EPS outlook.
2025-01-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.70%The Cigna Group reports 2024 results with $247.1B revenue and $27.33 adjusted EPS
2024-02-02SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.38%The Cigna Group reports 2023 results with $195.3B revenue and $25.09 adjusted EPS
2023-05-05SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.00%The Cigna Group reported strong first quarter 2023 results and raised 2023 outlook.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$320
Bear
$475
Base
$581
Bull
$281