CMCSA
Comcast Corporation$31.57
Hold
Target $40.25
Report: Feb 23, 2026Communication Services • Telecommunications Services • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$31.57+27.5%
Rec: HoldConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$30.96
(2% below current)
Fair Value
$40.25
(27% above current)
Stop Loss
$21.61
(32% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$37.14
52 Week Low$24.78
Avg. 3 Month Volume34.21M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin100.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin37.8%
LTM EBIT Margin24.7%
LTM Operating Margin16.7%
LTM ROA7.4%
LTM ROE21.2%
LTM ROIC16.7%
LTM ROCE13.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$103.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$192.8B
Shares Outstanding3.60B
Total Debt (MM)$98.94B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$9.48B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$89.46B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-0.0%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR0.6%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR19.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR65.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$32.19
LTM EV/Revenue1.6x
LTM EV/Gross Profit1.6x
LTM EV/EBIT6.3x
LTM EV/EBITDA4.1x
LTM P/E5.2x
LTM EV/FCF10.0x
LTM P/FCF5.4x
LTM P/TB0.8x
LTM P/B1.1x
Dividend Yield4.7%
Payout Ratio24.4%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $31.57 versus fair value $40.25 (27.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Versant Media Spin-off Completion The separation of legacy cable networks will allow Comcast to be valued as a pure-play connectivity and experiences company, likely leading to a multiple re-rating toward peer levels (8-10x P/FCF). Bear case centers on Broadband Moat Erosion Intensified competition from fixed wireless access (FWA) and fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) overbuilders could permanently impair Comcast's pricing power and subscriber base. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Starter sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
The Versant spin-off unlocks value by separating declining cable assets from high-growth connectivity and parks; Record FCF of $19.2 billion supports a 16.9% yield and aggressive buybacks; Epic Universe and Peacock's path to profitability provide clear EBITDA tailwinds for 2026.
Bear Case
Broadband subscriber growth has stalled, with 104,000 losses in recent quarters due to fixed wireless competition; Operating margins compressed 210 basis points to 16.7% as SG&A rose to 70.2% of revenue; High leverage of 2.4x net debt/EBITDA limits flexibility during a peak capital cycle.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Versant Media Spin-off Completion The separation of legacy cable networks will allow Comcast to be valued as a pure-play connectivity and ex...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
H2 2026 EBITDA Inflection Management expects EBITDA pressure to peak in H1 2026 due to NBA rights amortization and broadband pricing resets,...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Comcast is at a critical juncture as it enters its '2026 investment year' while simultaneously executing the most significant portfolio rest...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Broadband Moat Erosion Intensified competition from fixed wireless access (FWA) and fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) overbuilders could permanently...
Concern: High
Margin Compression from Sports Rights The amortization of expensive NBA and Olympic rights could lead to sustained operating margin pressure...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong but centralized. The presence of Edward Breen as Lead Independent Director-known as the 'Breakup King' for his work at...
Recent Activity
2025-12-16SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.37%Comcast files amended articles of incorporation and designates new preferred stock class.
2025-01-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-11.00%Comcast reports record 2024 financial performance with 46.6% net income growth and 17th consecutive dividend increase
2024-04-25SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.82%Comcast reports Q1 2024 results with strong financial performance and growth.
2023-10-26SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.42%Comcast reported Q3 2023 results with 5.1% Adjusted EBITDA growth and 12.5% Adjusted EPS growth.
2023-07-27SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.69%Comcast reported Q2 2023 results with 4.2% Adjusted EBITDA growth and 11.9% Adjusted EPS growth.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$22
Bear
$35
Base
$54
Bull
$32