CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.$36.30
Sell
Target $29.79
Report: Feb 21, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Restaurants • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$36.30-17.9%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$29.79
(18% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$58.42
52 Week Low$29.75
Avg. 3 Month Volume17.10M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin25.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin19.9%
LTM EBIT Margin16.9%
LTM Operating Margin16.2%
LTM ROA16.8%
LTM ROE47.0%
LTM ROIC16.5%
LTM ROCE25.1%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$41.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$46.4B
Shares Outstanding1.31B
Total Debt (MM)$5.08B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$385.91M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$4.69B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth5.4%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR11.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR17.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR20.9%
Valuation
Street Target Price$44.35
LTM EV/Revenue3.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit15.3x
LTM EV/EBIT23.1x
LTM EV/EBITDA19.6x
LTM P/E27.1x
LTM EV/FCF32.0x
LTM P/FCF28.8x
LTM P/TB4.6x
LTM P/B14.7x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $36.3 versus fair value $29.79 (-17.9% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Negative Earnings Surprise: Continued traffic declines in Q1 and Q2 2026 will likely force a downward revision of full-year EPS estimates, which currently rely on a return to positive transactions. Bear case centers on Sustained Traffic Decline: A permanent shift in consumer frequency among the core $100,000+ income cohort would impair the company's ability to leverage its fixed costs. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Unit expansion remains robust with 350+ annual openings; Chipotlanes provide industry-leading 60% year-two cash-on-cash returns; high-efficiency equipment rollout could offset labor inflation.
Bear Case
Comparable restaurant sales have turned negative (-0.3%); pricing power is exhausted as 1-2% hikes lag mid-single-digit inflation; heavy insider selling and CEO departure signal a peak in the cycle.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Negative Earnings Surprise: Continued traffic declines in Q1 and Q2 2026 will likely force a downward revision of full-year EPS estimates, w...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Margin Compression Realization: As mid-single-digit cost inflation persists without corresponding price hikes, the 16.2% operating margin wi...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Chipotle is relevant for analysis now due to the recent permanent appointment of Scott Boatwright as CEO and the emergence of Third Point as...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Sustained Traffic Decline: A permanent shift in consumer frequency among the core $100,000+ income cohort would impair the company's ability...
Concern: High
Labor and Commodity Inflation: California's AB1228 and potential avocado tariffs create non-discretionary cost increases that management has...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate but lacks strong alignment. While the board is high-quality-featuring ex-CFOs from Starbucks and Family Dollar-insid...
Recent Activity
2025-11-25SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.09%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 NEWS Contact: Erin Wolford (949) 524-4035 Media Relations@chipotle.com CHIPOTLE NAMES JOSH WEINSTEIN TO ITS BOARD OF DIRECTORS NEWPORT BEACH, Calif., November 25, 2025 — Chipotle...
2025-10-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-18.18%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 EARNINGS RELEASE PR Contact: Laurie Schalow (949) 524-4035 Media Relations@chipotle.com IR Contact: Cindy Olsen, CFA (949) 524-4205 Cindy. Olsen@chipotle.com CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES...
2025-07-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-13.34%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 EARNINGS RELEASE PR Contact: Laurie Schalow (949) 524-4035 Media Relations@chipotle.com IR Contact: Cindy Olsen, CFA (949) 524-4205 Cindy. Olsen@chipotle.com CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES...
2024-10-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.87%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 EARNINGS RELEASE PR Contact: Laurie Schalow (949) 524-4035 Media Relations@chipotle.com IR Contact: Cindy Olsen, CFA (949) 524-4205 Cindy. Olsen@chipotle.com CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES...
2024-08-13SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.50%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 PR Contact: Laurie Schalow (949) 524-4035 Media Relations@chipotle.com IR Contact: Cindy Olsen, CFA (949) 524-4205 Cindy. Olsen@chipotle.com CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES CEO DEPARTURE SCOTT...
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$25
Bear
$32
Base
$40
Bull
$36