COP
ConocoPhillips$111.43
Unclear
Target $102.16
Report: Feb 21, 2026Energy • Oil & Gas Exploration & Production • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$111.43-8.3%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$78.58
(29% below current)
Fair Value
$102.16
(8% below current)
Stop Loss
$75.00
(33% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$135.87
52 Week Low$79.88
Avg. 3 Month Volume9.72M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin43.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin40.6%
LTM EBIT Margin22.0%
LTM Operating Margin22.6%
LTM ROA6.5%
LTM ROE12.3%
LTM ROIC10.5%
LTM ROCE12.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$161.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$178.3B
Shares Outstanding1.23B
Total Debt (MM)$23.44B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$6.50B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$16.95B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth8.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-9.2%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-11.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-24.3%
Valuation
Street Target Price$116.79
LTM EV/Revenue2.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit6.7x
LTM EV/EBIT13.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA7.1x
LTM P/E20.2x
LTM EV/FCF24.6x
LTM P/FCF22.3x
LTM P/TB1.3x
LTM P/B2.5x
Dividend Yield1.8%
Payout Ratio37.8%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $111.43 versus fair value $102.16 (-8.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Realization of $1 billion in cost reduction and margin enhancement initiatives. Bear case centers on Sustained commodity price downturn leading to a 'lower-for-longer' cycle. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
The bull case rests on the successful realization of 2 billion dollars in synergies from the Marathon acquisition and the commencement of the Willow project, which is expected to drive peer-leading free cash flow growth. Additionally, the company's $1 billion cost-reduction program is projected to lower the free cash flow breakeven to the low $30 per barrel range by 2030.
Bear Case
The bear case highlights the reinvestment drag from 49.4 billion dollars in capital expenditures, which has resulted in a negative -3.6% incremental ROIC. Furthermore, the company's high sensitivity to commodity prices means that a sustained downturn could jeopardize the 45% cash-return target, especially as institutional investors have net sold 15.2 million shares in the most recent quarter.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Realization of $1 billion in cost reduction and margin enhancement initiatives. This addresses market concerns regarding the recent 3.9 perc...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Willow project production inflection and spudding of exploration wells in Alaska. This validates the long-term free cash flow growth narrati...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
ConocoPhillips is at a critical juncture following the closing of the 22.5 billion dollar Marathon Oil acquisition, making the next two quar...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Sustained commodity price downturn leading to a 'lower-for-longer' cycle. This would impair the company's ability to fund its 12.1 billion d...
Concern: Medium
Execution risk and cost overruns at the Willow project in Alaska. Inflationary pressures on North Slope construction could further erode the...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is positive but cautious. While the board features exceptional cyclical expertise-including R.A. Walker, the former...
Recent Activity
2026-01-08Analyst Target
+5.09%Firm: Piper Sandler Analyst: Ryan Todd Price Target: $109.00 Price When Posted: $93.94 Implied Upside: +16.0%
2025-04-10market
-8.98%Market/Sector Move -8.98%
2024-11-23SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.06%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Exhibit 99.1 925 North Eldridge Parkway Houston, TX 77079 Media Relations: 281-293-1149 www.conocophillips.com/media NEWS RELEASE Nov. 22, 2024 Conoco Phillips completes acquisition of Marathon Oil...
2024-10-31SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.37%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 Conoco Phillips announces third-quarter 2024 results, increases quarterly ordinary dividend and existing share repurchase authorization • Reported third-quarter 2024 earnings per...
2023-02-02SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
-5.44%Excerpt: SC 13G/A 1 Conoco Phillips.txt UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D. C. 20549 SCHEDULE 13G UNDER THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 EXIT FILING CONOCOPHILLIPS (NAME OF ISSUER) COMMON STOCK (TITLE OF...
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$44
Bear
$103
Base
$152
Bull
$111